A small seven-game Major League Baseball slate on Thursday is an appetizer for a loaded weekend schedule. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.
The two games between American League teams (Twins-Red Sox, Angels-Yankees) in the afternoon window Thursday are series finales, while the other five later games are all series openers between National League opponents.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Minnesota Twins (+105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-125)
- Los Angeles Angels (+140) vs. New York Yankees (-165)
- Cincinnati Reds (+140) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-165)
- Colorado Rockies (+190) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-225)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) vs. Chicago Cubs (-115)
- San Diego Padres (-140) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+120)
- New York Mets (-135) vs. San Francisco Giants (+115)
Thursday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Kris Bryant Over 1.5 total bases (+135 via DraftKings) vs. Phillies ????
- Player prop: Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 stolen bases (+320 via DraftKings) vs. Padres ???
- Player prop: Francisco Lindor to score a run (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Gi ants ???
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 (+125 via DraftKings) vs. Reds ???
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Thursday's MLB prop picks
Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant got off to a slow start from a power standpoint this season, with no home runs and just three extra-base hits through the first 12 games. However, he still maintained a solid .306 batting average in that span, which meant it was only a matter of time before Bryant started hitting for more power.
Entering Wednesday, Bryant had hit three home runs in the previous five games, with two multi-hit games in that stretch. He recorded at least one hit in 15 of 17 games and exceeded this total base prop in four of six. He should once again find success against Phillies starter Matt Strahm, whose 41.4% hard-hit percentage allowed (on pace to be the second-worst of his career) and 41.4% fly-ball percentage (highest of his career) suggest his 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP are due for regression.
DraftKings offers the best value for this prop, as Caesars (+123) and FanDuel (+105) provide worse odds.
Predicting success for Corbin Carroll is almost impossible based on past history, as he faces many opposing pitchers for the first time as a rookie. However, with the frequency that the Diamondbacks phenom is getting on base, his odds for stolen bases rise dramatically.
Carroll's .297 on-base percentage has room for improvement, but he has reached base safely in eight of nine games entering Wednesday, with four multi-hit games in that span. Despite stealing just two bases over his last eight games, he still ranks tied for sixth in the league with seven stolen bases and has yet to be caught.
Opposing starter Michael Wacha has allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings and 2.8 walks per nine thus far, which are both on pace to be his worst since 2020. He allowed four stolen bases and did not catch any runners stealing all of last season. In addition, this is a three-star play since Wacha's fastball velocity ranks in the 12th percentile, which means Carroll should be able to be a great jump when he does reach base.
Francisco Lindor is the only player on Thursday's slate to have an OPS greater than 1.000 against their opposing pitcher (minimum 12 at-bats). Lindor's 1.083 career OPS against Giants southpaw Sean Manaea is due primarily to his three extra-base hits (four total hits) in 12 at-bats. One of those hits was a home run, and Lindor has had much more success from the right side of the plate than the left side this year. Lindor entered Wednesday with a .300/.382/.700 slash line (with three home runs) against left-handed pitching compared to a .171/.333/.343 slash line (with one home run) against righties.
Even if Lindor does not take matters into his own hands with a home run to cross the plate, he is protected in the lineup by Pete Alonso, who entered Wednesday with an RBI in three of four games and the third-best OPS against southpaws (min. 25 PA) this season.
Caesars (+108) and FanDuel (+100) also offer plus-money odds for this wager, but the best value is still at DraftKings.
Thursday's MLB game picks
Per Inside Edge, the Pirates went 39-23 (.629) against the run line in games against bottom-10 scoring offenses in 2022, the third-best mark in the league. A series opener against the Reds fits that criterion, as Cincinnati scored the eighth-fewest runs in 2022 (648) despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks.
The Pirates face a Reds team that is just 1-5 on the road this season, who send starting pitcher Luke Weaver to the mound for his season debut. Weaver has been out since spring training after dealing with forearm soreness, and we do not expect him to give the team much length, considering 25 of 26 appearances last season came out of the bullpen. That does not bode well for Cincinnati's chances of success, as its relievers entered Wednesday ranked in the bottom third of the league in ERA (4.19) and BABIP (.311).
This is also a three-star play as Pirates starter Roansy Contreras has not allowed a home run in 15 2/3 innings, which should further suppress a Reds offense that ranks 22nd in HR/FB rate. The best odds are at DraftKings, as all other sportsbooks are at +122 or lower to lay the -1.5 runs.
MLB best bets made 4/20/2023 at 6:19 a.m. ET.
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