There is always an edge in shopping for the best available prices in the home run props because of the disparities in the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has assessed the market and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB home run props
- Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 home runs (+380 via DraftKings) ??
- Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 home runs (+600 via DraftKings, FanDuel) ?
- Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 home runs (+600 via FanDuel) ?
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Wednesday's MLB home run prop picks
Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios has been a pitching machine with the second-most homers allowed to left-handed hitters since inking his monster deal following the 2021 campaign.
Kyle Tucker tees up righties, too.
The Houston Astros outfielder bashed 37 bombs with a .234 ISO and 36.5 hard-hit rate dating back to his breakout 2021 campaign, and I'm bullish about his chances of hitting his second career round-tripper against Berrios on Wednesday.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +380 ?? | +320 ?? | +350 | +360 | +350 |
The edge in landing the best price is a positive value of 14%, or an extra $6 of profit on a winning $10 dollar bet. I also like Tucker to go Over 1.5 total bases, and that prop is trading at +115 through both DraftKings and BetMGM.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
I think we're in the beginning stage of a heater for Ke'Bryan Hayes.
The Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman is sporting a five-game hitting streak and kick-started it with his first home run of the season Saturday. There was never any doubt the second-generation MLB'er was going to be a tough out at the dish. The question has always been whether he would pack the prototypical, hot-corner power.
With a favorable pitching matchup against Colorado Rockies lefty Austin Gomber, I'm eyeing the long odds for Hayes launching one out of hitter-friendly Coors Field. Gomber has surrendered 1.67 HR/9 to right-handed hitters over the past three years, and Hayes has packed more punch against southpaws with a respectable .159 ISO and high-end 38.0 hard-hit rate during his short career.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +600 | +600 | +525 | +525 | +550 |
This pick is more of a lean to Hayes' untapped power potential, and there also isn't a huge edge in the available odds. Still, securing the +600 number presents a positive expected value of 12% over the +525 price available through BetMGM and Caesars.
I'd definitely keep an eye on the weather forecast with this bet, too. The wind is expected to be blowing in at Coors on Wednesday. DraftKings has Hayes priced at -140 to go Over 1.5 total bases, which is a solid pivot given the pitching matchup.
A bit of my enthusiasm for this bet was zapped when Ozzie Albies squared up his fourth homer of the season Tuesday night. A downfall of forecasting too far in advance, I guess.
Still, the switch-hitting Atlanta Braves second baseman has shown success against righties with an excellent .192 ISO and 35.9 hard-hit rate since hi s first full season in the majors in 2018. I also value his 11.7 barrel percentage to start this year.
The pitching matchup is also favorable for the lefties in the Braves lineup. San Diego Padres righty Nick Martinez has allowed 2.1 HR/9 to left-handed hitters as a starter since joining the Friars last season.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +600 | +600 | +575 | +480 ?? | +550 |
One of the main reasons I didn't shift off this nod is because of the favorable number available through DraftKings and FanDuel. The difference between the +600 and +480 odds is a positive expected value of 20%. From a payout perspective it's an extra $12 profit on a $10 dollar wager.
Pivoting to Albies' total base prop is in play here, too. He's priced at +150 through BetMGM to go Over 1.5 total bases.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/19/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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