Eleven of Wednesday's 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon window, as it is a popular getaway day for most teams. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
The Atlanta Braves look to complete a sweep of the San Diego Padres and extend their winning streak to nine games. In the American League, the longest active winning streak belongs to the Detroit Tigers (five games). Does either of these teams make our daily best bets column?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-225) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+190)
- Cleveland Guardians (-140) vs. Detroit Tigers (+120)
- San Francisco Giants (-110) vs. Miami Marlins (-110)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-180)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-115) vs. Chicago White Sox (-105)
- Texas Rangers (-110) vs. Kansas City Royals (-110)
- New York Mets (-130) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) vs. Colorado Rockies (+105)
- Chicago Cubs (-165) vs. Oakland Athletics (+140)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-130)
- Atlanta Braves (-120) vs. San Diego Padres (+100)
- Los Angeles Angels (+115) vs. New York Yankees (-135)
- Baltimore Orioles (Off) vs. Washington N ationals
- Minnesota Twins (-135) vs. Boston Red Sox (+115)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs. Houston Astros (-115)
Wednesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Martin Perez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+108 via FanDuel) vs. Royals ????
- Player prop: Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 RBIs (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Diamondbacks ???
- Player prop: Jose Berrios Under 16.5 outs (-125 via DraftKings) vs. Astros ???
- Upset: Tigers (+130 via WynnBet) vs. Guardians ???
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Wednesday's MLB prop picks
Rangers southpaw Martin Perez's strikeout total has dropped in three consecutive starts after a seven-strikeout performance in his first start. However, Perez's last two starts have come against teams (the Cubs and Astros) that rank in the top 12 in strikeout rate, with Houston striking out the least of any team against left-handed pitching. Perez's strikeout total should be on the rise Wednesday when facing a Royals lineup that is the worst in baseball with a 32% strikeout rate and .250 on-base percentage against southpaws.
This is a solid four-star play, as Perez's 23.2% strikeout percentage is on pace to be a career-high despite facing two offenses adept at making contact. DraftKings and Caesars also offer plus-money odds for this same wager, but are slightly lower at +105 and +100, respectively.
Paul Goldschmidt is coming off an MVP season, largely due to the damage he did to left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt led the league by a wide margin with a .411 batting average and 1.327 OPS against southpaws and was the only player with a wRC+ higher than 214 (his was 266) in such splits. Now, the Cardinals slugger faces Madison Bumgarner, against whom he's slashing .342/.422/.618, with 11 of his 26 hits in 76 at-bats going for extra bases.
Goldschmidt should be rested after a day off Monday. And with the protection he gets from Nolan Arenado hitting behind him (Arenado has a .767 career OPS against Bumgarner), the southpaw will have no choice but to pitch to him. Thus, we are getting good odds at DraftKings for Goldschmidt to pick it up after a reasonably slow start (by his standards) to record at least one RBI (he has recorded an RBI in seven of 17 games).
DraftKings provides much more value than at FanDuel, which offers -120 odds for Goldschmidt to drive in at least one run.
Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios has struggled in road starts throughout his career, as his 4.99 ERA away from home is much higher than his 3.61 ERA in 88 career home starts (89 appearances). That inflated number is a product of a much higher home run allowed rate on the road (36 more homers allowed in four more at-bats) compared to at home, and his 6.7 K/9 on the road last year was much lower than his 8.8 K/9 at home.
Berrios now faces an Astros offense that entered Tuesday ranked in the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and ISO in the last seven days. Again, this is a three-star play, as Berrios has completed six innings just five times in his previous 11 road starts.
The Under for this wager is slightly more expensive at Caesars (-131), while one can wager only on the strikeout prop at FanDuel.
Wednesday's MLB game picks
One of Cleveland's most significant advantages over its opponents is in the bullpen, especially after a year when its relievers ranked second in xFIP and fourth in WAR. However, that advantage is somewhat mitigated coming off a doubleheader Tuesday, when many of its best arms were called to action. Wednesday's starting pitcher, Cal Quantrill, may not be able to give the team the length it needs after beginning the year with a 5.74 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 5.81 xFIP, and 5.55 SIERA.
Quantrill has been relied upon as an innings eater, as he threw at least five innings in 29 of 32 starts last year. However, he is 11-13 in 53 career road appearances (31 starts) compared to 20-4 in 63 appearances (47 starts) at home. In addition, his ERA is 0.8 runs higher away from home, and his 1.40 WHIP at Comerica Park is his second-highest of all visiting ballparks in the AL Central. This is a three-star play, as Quantrill has allowed an OBA of .306 and OBP of .343 in 72 combined at-bats to opposing Tigers hitters.
WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering higher than +125 odds for the Tigers to win outright.
MLB best bets made 4/19/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.
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