A matchup that has been months in the making kicks off Tuesday when the Tampa Bay Lightning face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We break down the matchup with our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks and same-game parlay based on the best NHL odds.
For the second consecutive season, the opening round of the NHL playoffs features an Atlantic Division battle between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs. The Bolts overcame a 3-2 series deficit to win in seven games last year. That propelled Tampa into a third straight Stanley Cup Final appearance, but it lost in six games to the Colorado Avalanche.
The Leafs will look to get past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2013. The Buds have been bounced in the first round in six consecutive seasons.
Nonetheless, the Leafs (50-21-11) open as the favorites and will have home-ice advantage in the first round. The Lightning (46-30-6) will look to strike a first-round upset for the second straight year.
Here are our best Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks and SGP (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs SGP picks
- Alternate goals: Under 6.5 (-156) ???
- Auston Matthews to record 5+ shots on goal (-120) ????
- Brayden Point anytime goal scorer (+165) ??
Combined odds: +956
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks
The first round of the NHL playoffs began with three of four games going Under and the one contest to hit the Over required overtime to do so.
Both the Leafs and Lightning ranked in the top half of the league in goals against average. The Leafs (sixth) allowed 2.67 goals against per game and the Bolts (14th) averaged 3.07 goals against.
Check out our Rangers vs. Devils picks and NHL best bets
The goaltending matchup features Lightning stalwart Andrei Vasilevskiy who owns a career 2.30 GAA and .923 save percentage in the postseason. The Leafs will be relying on Ilya Samsonov in the crease after he surprised with a 2.33 GAA and .919 in 42 games this season. Samsonov finished the regular season winning three of his last five games and allowing six total goals in that span.
Last year's opening matchup began with a 5-0 Leafs victory. Expect the tighter checking in the NHL playoffs to result in a low-scoring affair.
The Over/Under is set at 5.5, but we'll take the added insurance with the 6.5 alternate line.
Leafs star Auston Matthews finished the season carrying the play offensively. He recorded at least five shots on net in six of his last 10 games.
The first-line center averaged 4.4 shots per game across 74 contests this season, but his performance in last year's first-round series may be even more indicative of what to expect. Matthews scored two goals on six shots in last year's Game 1 victory over the Bolts. He went on to post nine points and 29 shots in the seven-game series.
If the Leafs are to finally overcome their first-round bugaboo, Matthews will surely play a central role.
Lightning center Brayden Point recorded his first 50-goal season and rifled off four goals in his last six games to hit the plateau.
Point's a proven playoff performer, as he scored 14 goals in the 2020 and 2021 playoffs and had another two goals in last year's series against the Leafs.
Point registered 20 power-play goals this season (third most in the league) and will center the top unit against a Maple Leafs defensive pairing of Jack McCabe and T.J. Brodie that doesn't inspire much confidence.
At +165 to score a goal, Point takes our same-game parlay to +956.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game info
- Date: Tuesday, April 18, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, On
Lightning-Maple Leafs pick made 4/18/2023 at 3:14 p.m. ET.
Here are our best NHL betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)