MLB schedule today has 17 games
Two doubleheaders are on the docket today because of postponements on Monday, so that gives us a season high 17 games on the betting board. I got a late start this morning because we are having a VSiN Media Day with headshots being taken and promos being taped, so I won’t be able to hit on the early starts, but we’ve got 14 night games, so there will be plenty to think about. (Tracking sheet)
With that in mind, let’s dive right into the Tuesday card so I can get this and the latest edition of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets out as quickly as possible.
Here are some thoughts on the April 18 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (-115, 8.5)
The first game on the betting board by rotation number is once again between the Giants and Marlins. It will be Alex Wood for the Giants and right-hander Edward Cabrera for the Marlins. Specifying the handedness of the pitcher is critically important in Giants games because they’ve done really well against righties this season and really poorly against lefties.
They actually did okay against Jesus Luzardo yesterday and bumped up from a 49 wRC+ to a 56 wRC+, but that is tied for 28th. Only the Tigers have been worse against southpaws this season. Against righties, however, the Giants have a 130 wRC+, which ranks second to the Rays. If you listened to yesterday’s podcast, you know exactly what wRC+ is and why it’s important.
Through three starts, Cabrera has been, really, really fortunate to limit the damage. He’s allowed 14 walks in 11.2 innings, but has only given up six runs on nine hits. He has allowed two runs in each start, but has had six, seven, and one in the BB column. He has done a good job to limit hard contact and hasn’t allowed a homer yet, so that’s how he has kept the runs down. The Giants are walking a lot against righties, but have also been pretty power-dependent. This may not be the park or the pitcher for that.
Wood has allowed one earned run over 7.2 innings to start the season with an 8/5 K/BB ratio. He’s worked around a bit of hard contact in his two starts and has an average exit velocity against of 93 mph. This looks like a pretty tough handicap because Wood is playing with fire and so is Cabrera. The Giants are also missing Joc Pederson, who is a huge part of the attack against righties.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (-165, 8)
Yesterday was a good day with a 2-0 record, but everything I liked came through and I went too conservative with the card. That included liking the Diamondbacks, with a note that the Cardinals didn’t deserve to be that big of a favorite. Well, they’re priced in a similar range today, but this time with Jordan Montgomery on the mound. He’s been much better than Jack Flaherty and likely deserves a price like this.
He has allowed five runs on 15 hits in 18.1 innings of work with 17 strikeouts against five walks. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet, as most of the hard contact he has allowed has been on the ground. Montgomery gave up 11 hard-hit balls last start against the Pirates and nine with four barrels in his first start against the Jays. There are some signs that maybe he’s gotten fortunate to get away with some of the hard-hit contact he’s surrendered, but I don’t know if the Diamondbacks will take advantage.
Arizona’s offense is super aggressive, but doesn’t really make a lot of premium contact. They do put a lot of balls in play and swipe a lot of bases, which is a little tougher to do against a left-hander like Montgomery. The Snakes also have just an 85 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Drey Jameson will make his second start for the D-Backs in this one. He had three relief appearances before taking over in the rotation for the injured Zach Davies. He threw four shutout innings with four strikeouts against the Brewers in that first start. He’s only allowed two runs on eight hits with a 12/5 K/BB ratio over 12.1 innings. He has allowed a 48.4% Hard Hit%, though, so we’ll see if that catches up with him.
It’s another day with a number that looks a little big on St. Louis, but I do love Montgomery and I’m still not totally convinced about the Diamondbacks bullpen, especially in middle relief, given that Jameson will probably only go four innings or so.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies (-110, 13)
A couple of gas cans are on the mound at Coors Field with Vince Velasquez and Jose Urena. Velasquez is actually coming off of a nice outing against the Cardinals with six innings of shutout ball. He has actually stayed out of the nitro zone with a 36.4% Hard Hit% over three starts as well, though the results in the other two weren’t terribly good.
He’s definitely been better than Urena. The Rockies right-hander has allowed 13 runs on 17 hits in 10 innings with more walks than strikeouts and five homers allowed. He’s got a 9.90 ERA with a 10.82 FIP, and a 47.5% Hard Hit% against. He is probably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, but I’m not terribly fond of Velasquez at Coors Field either.
This one is an easy pass for me with a ton of balls in play, two guys with bad command, and a total of 13 that may be very reachable, but is still a really high number.
Atlanta Braves (-140, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
I was really curious to see what this number would come out at because I wanted to play the Braves if it was reasonable. First off, the Braves draw a lefty in Blake Snell and they’ve been a terrific offense in that split. Snell is also struggling with 11 runs allowed on 18 hits over 13 innings. He’s struck out 16, but he’s also walked 10. He’s also allowed three homers in his last two starts to go along with 16 hard-hit balls for a 55.2% Hard Hit% and four barrels, with three against the Braves.
He’s not locating well right now and is facing a lineup that hits lefties extremely well. His velocity is also down a little bit and he’s throwing more fastballs than normal. These are all negative signs for Snell, who also had a huge decrease in curveball spin rate in his last start.
Spencer Strider hasn’t been as sharp as usual, but he’s still racked up 27 strikeouts in just 16 innings of work. He’s allowed three runs in five innings in each of his last two starts, but I wouldn’t say that he’s been hit hard in those outings. His velocity looks fine and he has much more margin for error than Snell right now with all the increased strikeouts and everything else in his profile.
The Padres are also scuffling a bit right now. Manny Machado got really defensive with the media after last night’s loss and this is a superstar team probably pressing a bit at this stage. The Braves are playing pretty free and easy and I think they have a big starting pitcher advantage tonight. I also wouldn’t be shocked if we see Snell hit the IL at some point soon, especially if his spin rates are down again today.
Pick: Braves -140
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8.5)
It will be Tylor Megill and Clayton Kershaw in this one with the Dodgers lined as a pretty heavy favorite for the second night in a row. Megill has thrown the ball well as a member of the Mets rotation this season with four runs allowed on 12 hits in 16 innings of work with a 13/7 K/BB ratio. He is running a .233 BABIP and a 92.6% LOB%, though, so there are going to be some struggles for him on the horizon.
To be fair, he does have a 33.3% Hard Hit%, so carrying a lower BABIP is plausible, but he’s faced the Marlins twice and then the Padres. This is a step up in class and a spot where the heightened walk total may present some challenges.
Kershaw has allowed seven earned runs on 16 hits in his 18 innings with a solid 17/4 K/BB ratio. Kershaw’s problem this season has been settling in, as he’s allowed a .333/.370/.583 slash the first time through the order. Otherwise, his only damage has really been two solo homers the third time through. If he gets through the first couple innings unscathed tonight, he should be able to control the game well, so that may be a live betting angle to look at for him.
This game seems to be lined pretty fairly, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Megill has a bit of a rough start here. This might be a good live play on the Dodgers if the Mets take an early lead off of Kershaw.
Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers Game 2
I don’t have anything to really say about this game, but I wanted to briefly mention my doubleheader strategy. I typically don’t play them in advance, but it is definitely important to see what happened in Game 1 to apply it to Game 2. Was the bullpen used extensively? Which relievers were used in Game 1? Did somebody leave Game 1 hurt?
Sometimes the winner of Game 1 relaxes a bit in Game 2. Late in the year, you may see a bad team just roll over, but usually you don’t want to lose both games during a long day at the yard. But I won’t play Game 2 before I see Game 1.
As far as my approach to Game 1, sometimes we see one team put out a better lineup or have a better starter going. Keep in mind that a bad Game 1 starter may be asked to go long or wear a beating for the sake of the bullpen, so that could also be a betting angle.