The Minnesota Twins (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 10-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 8-9 ATS.
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.65 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.15 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+4.6 Units / 23.83% ROI).
- 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 22.78% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -39.72% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 32% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -5.91% ROI).
- 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -13.06% ROI
- 11-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 23.72% ROI
- 6-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -33.77% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 45% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (35/78) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (10-for-60) against Sonny Gray this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 92nd Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 50% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (303/607) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out 40% (18/45) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Sale has allowed an OPS of 1.484 (18 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .692 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 41% (15/37) against Chris Sale this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of .964 (27 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .478 — first Percentile.