Twelve of the 15 Major League Baseball games played Saturday are in the afternoon window, giving bettors plenty of opportunity to make money early. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
The Tampa Bay Rays' 13-game winning streak to start the season ended in Toronto on Friday, leaving them tied with the 1982 Atlanta Braves and 1987 Milwaukee Brewers for the longest winning streaks to start a season since 1900. So, how do we involve the Rays in Saturday's best bets column?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Minnesota Twins (+110) vs. New York Yankees (-130)
- San Francisco Giants (OFF) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Baltimore Orioles (-120) vs. Chicago White Sox (+100)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-200)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+100) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-120)
- Cleveland Guardians (-170) vs. Washington Nationals (+145)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+105) vs. San Diego Padres (-125)
- New York Mets (-180) vs. Oakland Athletics (+155)
- Los Angeles Angels (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox (-105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) vs. Miami Marlins (-130)
- Atlanta Braves (-140) vs. Kansas City Royals (+120)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-115)
- Texas Rangers (+150) vs. Houston Astros (-175)
- C hicago Cubs (+140) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-165)
- Colorado Rockies (+205) vs. Seattle Mariners (-145)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Tyler Mahle Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ????
- Player prop: Justin Turner Over 0.5 RBIs (+200 via DraftKings) vs. Angels ???
- Player prop: Javier Baez Under 1.5 total bases (OFF) vs. Giants ????
- Total: Rays-Blue Jays Over 9.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ???
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
Minnesota Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle is used to pitching in hitter-friendly stadiums, as he spent the first five-plus years of his career with the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ball Park. That is a big reason Mahle has never had a HR/9 rate less than 1.0, and why we do not expect his 17.2% fly-ball rate as opposed to his 55.2% ground ball rate through two starts to hold up.
New York's offense is highly predicated on the long ball, especially at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are coming off a season in which they ranked first in the league by a wide margin in home runs hit at home (136, the next closest team was the Braves at 125) and entered Friday tied for third with 13 home runs in seven home games, despite playing two fewer home games than the Rangers and three fewer than the Rays, the two teams ahead of them. As a result, we expect New York to use this to its advantage to score against Mahle, as he has allowed five home runs in 27 1/3 innings since joining the Twins.
This is a four-star play as Mahle's regularly scheduled start was pushed back a day, and he has a career 1.44 HR/9 rate when pitching on five days' rest as opposed to a 1.18 rate with four days of rest. We are making this play at DraftKings, whose +110 odds trump the +104 found at Caesars.
No hitter on Saturday's slate has faced their opposing pitcher more times than Justin Turner, who has had 34 career at-bats against Angels lefty Tyler Anderson. Despite that large sample size, Turner has gotten the better of Anderson on many occasions, with a slash line of .500/.538/.882. Most impressive is that Turner has struck out twice in those 34 at-bats, and seven of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases.
With Turner's odds of getting a hit being too steep (-270), we are opting for more value that his career success against Anderson will translate into more runs batted in. Turner had only one RBI in six home games before Friday, but given his success against Anderson, he is due for some positive regression in that area.
There is a lot of variability in these odds across the sportsbooks, with FanDuel as low as +125. However, bettors will not find more value than at DraftKings at +200.
To say that Javier Baez is not living up to his $23-million salary this season is an understatement. Baez entered Friday with a slash line of .122/.182/.146, with just one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances. Things went from bad to worse when he was benched earlier this week after a baserunning blunder.
This is a solid four-star play, as he has minimal success against Saturday's opposing pitcher. Baez has two hits in 13 at-bats against Giants righty Anthony DeSclafani, and though both went for extra bases, he has also struck out four times in that span. With Baez moved down in the batting order, it makes even more sense to back this Under, given that he is not likely to come to the plate as much.
This is a play at 1.5 total bases up to -135, but I would pivot to backing him to go hitless if those odds were any steeper, since we would likely be getting plus-money odds at that number.
Saturday's MLB game picks
The Over is 9-3-2 in Tampa Bay's 14 games this year, which is an impressive feat considering its starting pitchers rank second in the league in ERA (2.65) and first by a wide margin with a 2.29 FIP. However, Saturday's original starter, Josh Fleming, figures to get some of the work in the middle innings. He is responsible for one of the rare blowups this season after allowing five earned runs on 10 hits in three innings in an early April start against Washington.
Meanwhile, Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi ranks in the 12th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and xSLG. That is problematic when facing a Rays lineup that leads the majors in nearly every offensive category, including OPS, home runs, and batting average.
All sportsbooks are in lockstep with the O/U of 9.5 and the juice split -115/-105.
MLB best bets made 4/15/2023 at 7:09 a.m. ET.
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