Three player props and a high-scoring Western Conference showdown headline Saturday's top NBA picks. Check out our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday based on the best NBA odds.
Saturday's four-game playoff slate offers some juicy player props, so we're focusing most of our attention there.
Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics get an attractive matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, and the star forward will look to keep facilitating at a high level.
Meanwhile, budding Brooklyn Nets star Mikal Bridges will get a chance to show off his scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers, and Donovan Mitchell is in a prime position to heat up from beyond the arc when the Cleveland Cavaliers host the New York Knicks.
We end the night with what figures to be a shootout between the Sacramento Kings and the visiting Golden State Warriors.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday (odds via FanDuel and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Saturday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Brooklyn Nets (+8.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- Atlanta Hawks (+9) vs. Boston Celtics
- New York Knicks (+5.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Golden State Warriors (-1) vs. Sacramento Kings
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Saturday's NBA player prop picks
Perhaps no player's stock has risen more over the last two months than Mikal Bridges'. After his trade to the Nets, Bridges became the team's primary option on offense, stepping out from the shadows he lived in with Phoenix while playing alongside Devin Booker and Chris Paul.
He's averaged 26.1 points per game in 27 appearances with the Nets and scored at least 27 points in 13 of them, including six on the road. He scored 23 in his team debut, which happened to be against the 76ers.
Over the final nine games of the season (not counting his ceremonious four seconds in the season finale to keep his games-played streak alive), Bridges averaged 30.4 points per game while scoring at least 20 points in all of them.
Philly's defense allowed the third-fewest points per game this season (110.9), but it fell to 14th over the final two weeks of the season, allowing 115.5. As discussed in our Nets vs. 76ers predictions, the Nets are big road 'dogs, and they'll need Bridges' offensive prowess to keep this one close.
Donovan Mitchell cooked in his first season with the Cavs, leading the team to over 50 wins while producing career highs in points (28.3) and 3-pointers (3.6). Mitchell averaged slightly more triples at home (3.7) while shooting 40.8% from beyond the arc. He drained at least five of them in 22 contests this season.
Mitchell is in a favorable position Saturday. In four games against New York this season, he averaged 5.5 triples, including 7.0 per game in two home matchups. Over his last six games against New York overall (this season and last), he averaged 5.1 3-pointers.
New York allows the fourth-most triples per game overall (13.0) and the fourth-most on the road (13.6). Mitchell's 3-pointer prop is set at 3.5 for odds of -140 or shorter, but we need to bank on only one additional trey to get those odds at plus money.
Tatum became the first player in Celtics history to average at least 30 points per game for an entire season (30.1), but he also got teammates involved, dishing a career-best 4.6 assists per game in 2022-23. Tatum's facilitating took a small step forward after the All-Star break, as he handed out 4.8 dimes over the final 19 games of the season. That included 11 contests with at least five.
Tatum handed out at least five assists in 37 of 74 games this season, and he totaled 14 of them across two matchups with Atlanta. The Hawks allow the eighth-most assists per game overall (26) and the eighth-most on the road (26.6). Marcus Smart's assist numbers plummeted from 7.1 pre-All-Star break to 4.3 post-break, due in part to nagging injuries and also to Tatum's continued excellence as a passer.
This prop is offered at odds of -110 or even -120 at other books, so getting it at -102 at FanDuel is a huge value.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
NBA game picks
What do you do when the two highest-scoring teams meet in the first round of the playoffs? You bet the Over, of course. On the season, Sacramento averaged the most points per game (120.7), and Golden State was next at 118.9. Sacramento put up the most points per game at home (123.4), and Golden State put up the most on the road (118.2). We've got a pair of potent point-scoring teams, but what about the defenses?
Both teams are among the 10 most generous to opponents in points per game allowed. Golden State allows the second-most points per game on the road (122.5), and Sacramento is tied for most points per game allowed at home (120.1).
If those numbers don't get your blood pumping, consider Golden State (16.6) ranks first in threes made per game, while Sacramento allows the third-highest 3-point percentage at home (37.5). Sacramento ranks fifth in made threes (13.8), and Golden State allows the second-highest percentage on the road (39.7).
The Warriors will surely be fired up after clawing their way to the No. 6 seed, and Sacramento should be amped up for its first playoff game since 2006 when the starting backcourt was Mike Bibby and Bonzi Wells. We're expecting a lot of points here.
NBA best bets made 04/14/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
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