We have a day packed with baseball as all 30 MLB teams are scheduled to play on Jackie Robinson day. My favorite prop of the day is a team prop in the Rays at Blue Jays game, let’s dive in!
Tampa Bay Rays first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+105)
The Rays finally lost a game yesterday, but now appears to be an opportune time to jump back in on their offense. Tampa Bay profiles as a team that will hit left-handed pitching very well this season. So far, they have faced 5 left-handed starters and the 9th most PA against southpaws overall. The numbers are off the charts with a wRC+ of 161 and top 5 rankings in nearly every other metric. They have scored 3 or more earned runs off each left-handed starter they have faced so far this season. Granted the first 2 allowed their runs in the 6th inning, but they are seeing southpaws well regardless.
Their deep roster allows Kevin Cash to employ 8 or 9 right-handed batters in these situations. Against today’s starter, Yusei Kikuchi, that appears to be a massive advantage. Kikuchi is someone with significant splits as right-handed bats always give him trouble. Last season the left-hander allowed RHB to post a .907 OPS, .280 ISO and 12.9% walk rate. Overall last year he ranked 1st percentile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and 3rd percentile in walk rate. Control both in and out of the zone is problematic for Kikuchi and Tampa Bay is not the offense you want command issues against. The Rays rank top 10 in run value/100 against each of Kikuchi’s top 3 pitches so far this season.