The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-250) on Thursday, April 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 7-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 6-6 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+9.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+6.55 Units / 164% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Walker has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Runs Over in his last 4 games at home (+6.10 Units / 149% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 away games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -12.17% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 29.84% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -3.03% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.03% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -6.21% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -19.74% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -36.64% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 25.47% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Vince Velasquez allowed a just .208 SLG vs right-handed batters (13th best)– 88th Percentile and .579 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (13th worst among qualified RPs)– 11th Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.4 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2021 season (245 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Vince Velasquez allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.9 MPH (220 batted balls) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.6 — 0 Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.1 MPH against his curves since the 2021 season (78 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 87.2
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 10% (2/20) against Jordan Montgomery with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timesin 2022 — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
69% of Jordan Montgomery’s called strikeouts were low in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 95th Percentile.