The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Thursday, April 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 8-3 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+10.30 Units / 110% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games (+10.15 Units / 89% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+8.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.45 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-8 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -37.18% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -39.45% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -4.81% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -2.71% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 39.93% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -21.4% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 23.01% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -30.2% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 12% (4/32) against Bailey Falter this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 25% (5 SO in 20 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (10/63) against Bailey Falter this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 12% (5 SO in 40 PAs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (37/96) against Nick Lodolo this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 41% (21 SO in 51 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 59% (10 SO in 17 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.