Series odds are starting to trickle in as the Stanley Cup Playoff picture begins to take shape, and while VSiN will have coverage throughout the entire run to the Stanley Cup final, some readers are likely ready to get started on making their own series predictions to pick out the most attractive underdog bets. With that in mind, here are three things that bettors should consider before making their picks to win each series.
Biggest underdog upsets in the Stanley Cup Playoffs
Upsets are common in the playoffs, but since 2013, only eight out of 42 underdogs with series odds of +180 or greater have advanced to the next round. It’s easy to pull instances where big underdogs won a series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, like the Columbus Blue Jackets and their sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019, or the Montreal Canadiens' comeback win over the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2021, but the reason those upsets stand out in our minds is because they’re so rare.
- 2021: Montreal Canadiens (+375) def. Vegas Golden Knights (-475)
- 2021: Montreal Canadiens (+235) def. Toronto Maple Leafs (-275)
- 2021: New York Islanders (+210) def. Boston Bruins (-260)
- 2020: Dallas Stars (+210) def. Vegas Golden Knights (-250)
- 2020: Dallas Stars (+210) def. Colorado Avalanche (-250)
- 2019: Columbus Blue Jackets (+325) def. Tampa Bay Lightning (-400)
- 2019: Colorado Avalanche (+180) def. Calgary Flames
- 2014: Montreal Canadiens (+210) def. Boston Bruins (-250)
Big series underdogs have won at a 19 percent clip over the last 10 seasons, which is about 11 percentage points below the rate a bettor would have needed to win at to break even. With big home favorites winning at an 80 percent clip over the last 10 seasons, betting on sizable series underdogs to win a best-of-seven hasn’t been a strong play, and bettors might do better picking their spots with underdogs that they think are value bets on a game-by-game basis.