The Houston Astros () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Astros vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 6-5 ATS.
Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 91% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+7.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+5.65 Units / 113% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 45% ROI)
Pirates vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jose Abreu | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Alex Bregman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Pirates vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jose Abreu | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Jeremy Pena | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Alex Bregman | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Pirates vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jose Abreu | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Alex Bregman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Pirates vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Rich Hill | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -6.97% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -33.33% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.75 Units / 42.91% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -51.15% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -5.73% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 41.23% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 5.35% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -11.62% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 37% (184/502) against Jose Urquidy in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 19% (103/541) against Jose Urquidy in 2022 — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 11th Percentile.
45% of Jose Urquidy’s called strikeouts were elevated in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 87% (27/31) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (167/448) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (2,128/4,635) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (1,336/3,269) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.