Homers are up to start the 2023 season, and there's a wide range in the available MLB odds across our best sportsbooks. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker explores the home run market and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday.
Listen, I'm into an old-fashioned pitching duel as much as anyone, but nothing fires the fans up more than an annihilated baseball leaving the yard. Hang all the Ks you want out in the outfield bleachers, I'm just over here cheering on the bombs.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB home run props
- Austin Riley Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via Caesars) ???
- Jordan Walker Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via Caesars) ??
Wednesday's MLB home run prop picks
It's been seven games since Riley left the yard, and he's collected just a single extra-base hit during the power outage. I'm eyeing statistical correction Wednesday, as his barrel percentage (6.3%) and hard-hit rate (28.1%) are both down from his respective 14.5% and 37.5% marks over the prior two seasons.
Cincinnati Reds righty Hunter Greene also ranks sixth worst in home runs allowed per nine innings (1.68) among pitchers with at least 100 innings dating back to the beginning of 2022. That number climbs to 1.82 against right-handed hitters, too.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +475 | +350 ?? | +450 | +500 ?? | +475 |
Finally, we're landing an incredible edge with the number available through Caesars. FanDuel has a Riley home run priced at a short +350, so we're securing a positive expected value of 33% backing the bomber with the +500 number.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
Colorado Rockies righty Jose Urena is a fringe talent with a career 4.86 ERA and 4.83 FIP, and he's served up three homers across just five innings to start the 2023 campaign. Add the weather forecast calling for moderate winds to be blowing out to right field at the already hitter-friendly Coors Field, and I'm expecting the Cardinals to have a solid day at the plate.
St. Louis outfielder Jordan Walker has been a model of consistency to start his rookie season, and he's already launched a pair of long balls through 11 games. While he's shown more pop against left-handed hurlers with a .375 ISO compared to his .143 mark against righties, that's more than baked into these odds.
The book still isn't out on Walker, either, and his 45.5% hard-hit rate checks out as a high-end mark.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +450 | +450 | +425 | +500 ?? | +400 ?? |
Caesars is hanging another rouge number to capitalize on, too. Compared to the +400 odds available through PointsBet, we're landing a positive expected value of 20% with the +500 number.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/12/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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