Marlins-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, April 12

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies are set for the rubber match of their three-game set on Wednesday, with first pitch set for 4:05 p.m. ET. The Marlins rebounded from a 15-3 drubbing on Monday night by beating Aaron Nola and the Phils, 8-4, on Tuesday. Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.40 ERA) will get the ball for Miami this afternoon while Zack Wheeler (0-1, 5.59) goes for Philly.

The Phillies are -190 favorites on the moneyline at Draftkings Sportsbook, while the Marlins check in as +160 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Marlins-Phillies picks: Wednesday, April 12th

Marlins

Day to day: OF Avisail Garcia (hamstring)

Out: SS Joey Wendle (intercostal strain), RP JT Chargois (oblique), RP Steven Okert (adductor strain), SP Johnny Cueto (biceps)

Phillies

Out: OF Bryce Harper (elbow), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), SP Ranger Suarez (forearm)

Edward Cabrera vs. Zack Wheeler

It's the same old story for Cabrera: electric stuff, way too many walks. The righty leads the entire Major Leagues with 13 free passes in just 6.2 innings – six over four innings on opening weekend, then seven in just 2.2 frames last week, both against the New York Mets. Cabrera gave up just two combined hits over those two outings, but allowed four earned runs in two Marlins losses. This is hardly a new issue for him, and he'll be hard to trust until we see him get his command fixed.

Wheeler has been underwhelming to start the year. He gave up four earned runs while striking out seven across 4.1 innings in a loss to the Texas Rangers, then allowed two runs in 5.1 innings – on five hits and three walks – in his home opener against the Cincinnati Reds. The stuff has looked fine, and he's not giving up particularly hard contact, so it feels like a matter of time before he starts looking like the guy who's been one of the best starters in baseball since 2020.

I'm tempted to cut against the grain and go under here, as there's certainly a chance that Wheeler shoves while the Phillies score enough to win but not enough to hit the number. Cabrera's wildness is just a little too risky, though.

Pick: Over 8.5

Again, there's just no way to trust Cabrera with his command the way it is right now. Give me Wheeler and the Phillies to win this series.

Pick: Phillies

  
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