Nine games in the afternoon window provide bettors several opportunities to lock in early wagers on a loaded Wednesday Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
The Tampa Bay Rays are now one of four teams since 1901 to start a season 11-0, and a victory Wednesday would tie the franchise record for longest winning streak at any point in a season. The Rays have used a combination of great pitching and power hitting to start strong, and their 29 home runs through 11 games tied a Major League record. Will those streaks continue?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. Minnesota Twins (-165)
- New York Yankees (-110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-110)
- San Diego Padres (-105) vs. New York Mets (-115)
- Seattle Mariners (-110) vs. Chicago Cubs (-110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-180) vs. Colorado Rockies (+155)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+100)
- Miami Marlins (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
- Washington Nationals (+145) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-170)
- Oakland Athletics (+155) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-180)
- Boston Red Sox (+105) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
- Detroit Tigers (+230) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-275)
- Cincinnati Reds (+220) vs. Atlanta Braves (-260)
- Kansas City Royals (+150) vs. Texas Rangers (-175)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) vs. San Francisco Giants (+145)
Wednesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Lucas Giolito Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Twins (-140 via FanDuel) ????
- Player prop: Rich Hill Over 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Astros (-135 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 RBI vs. Giants (+150 via DraftKings) ???
- Total: Reds-Braves first five innings Under 4.5 runs (-128 via FanDuel) ???
Wednesday's MLB prop picks
The Chicago White Sox are 5-0 in games started by Dylan Cease and Mike Clevinger but are 0-7 when Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech, and Wednesday's starter, Lucas Giolito, take the mound. Giolito was tagged for 12 hits and seven earned runs in four innings in his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. And if that was not worrisome enough, Giolito struck out just three batters and is putting his streak of four consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate of 9.9 or better in serious jeopardy.
G iolito struck out 29.5% of all left-handed batters he faced last year. Still, Minnesota's lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, specifically Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa at the top of the lineup. Giolito's history against the Twins suggests he should be in line for a bounce-back start, as he has held current hitters to a .170/.252/.311 slash line and struck out 43 in 106 combined at-bats. However, Giolito's velocity is down on three of his four pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) from last year, which suggests he may not be all that comfortable yet with the new pitch clock rules.
We also expect Giolito to go Over his projected 2.5 earned runs total, but the juice is much higher for that prop at -160, so betting the Under on his strikeout total is a better way to back that he will have a poor outing.
Pirates lefty Rich Hill is a respectable 3-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 12 career appearances (eight star ts) against the Houston Astros. However, those numbers are a bit misleading, as he has made just two starts against them since 2021 and has not lasted past the third inning either time.
Houston entered Tuesday ranked third in the league in wRC+ and fourth in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. While its 22nd-ranked .283 BABIP against southpaws pales in comparison to the rest of the league, its .354 OBP ranks seventh, which means Astros hitters have done a lot of damage in the power department against southpaws, especially with men on base. Hill has allowed an xSLG of .815 and xOBA of .488 in nine innings of work this year. And while he is not usually asked to work deep into games, that may be more of a necessity as the Pirates bullpen has been overworked, throwing at least five innings in three of the previous five games.
We're making this wager at DraftKings, whose odds are much mo re affordable than Caesars' -149 odds for the same prop.
J.D. Martinez is thoroughly enjoying his first season in Los Angeles thus far, as he entered Tuesday ranked in the top 30 in the league in RBIs. And while his 17 strikeouts led the league, we expect better success against San Francisco Giants righty Alex Cobb, who he has tremendous numbers against in his career.
Martinez has a slash line of .480/.500/.800 against Cobb, with six strikeouts in 25 career at-bats. And while Cobb has struck out 27.3% of batters this season, he has not ranked higher than the 60th percentile in K% in any of the previous five seasons. This is a three-star play, as Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of 12 games this season.
DraftKings again offers the best number for this wager, as FanDuel (+120) and Caesars (+139) don't pay out as much.
Wedne sday's MLB game picks
Don't expect many balls in play in the first five innings of the Cincinnati Reds-Atlanta Braves matchup, as two of the most elite strikeout pitchers in baseball square off. Cincinnati's Hunter Greene threw 337 pitches of 100-plus mph last season, and the next closest starting pitcher was Jordan Hicks, with 92. However, that velocity does not equate to hard-hit balls, as Greene ranks in the 21st percentile in hard-hit percentage and 14th percentile in average exit velocity.
His counterpart, Spencer Strider, was one of the top favorites to lead the league in strikeouts to start the season. Strider's whiff percentage and strikeout percentage rank in the 88th and 93rd percentile, respectively, and his slider and changeup each have generated a whiff percentage of 57.7% or higher.
We're taking the bullpens out of the equation with this wager, esp ecially because Cincinnati's relievers entered Tuesday ranked 23rd with a collective 5.18 ERA, and Atlanta's were in the bottom half of the league with a 4.33 FIP. We would make this a four-star play or higher if not for Strider's xERA being 1.39 runs higher (3.85 compared to 2.46) than his actual ERA. Those confident in a low-scoring start to this game can find the Over/Under at four runs for standard -110 juice at DraftKings, but we don't mind paying up slightly for the extra half-run of insurance,
MLB best bets made 4/12/2023 at 6:43 a.m. ET.
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