The Houston Astros (-175) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Astros vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-5 ATS.
Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.70 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Pirates vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.20 Units / 84% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.65% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -27.42% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 38.93% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -47.08% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -13.06% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 30.77% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -3.2% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.62% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has a strike rate of 78% (73/94) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has had second base stolen on him 6 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has allowed 6 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 68% (15/22) against Cristian Javier with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (4/28) against Mitch Keller this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 76% (32/42) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (53/160) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.