The New York Mets and San Diego Padres are both on a mini streak after winning three of their last four games, with the Mets taking the series opener on Monday 5-0. Let's dive into our Padres-Mets prediction based on the best MLB odds.
The Mets and Padres are among the powerhouses of the National League, with both teams among the favorites by the World Series odds.
They share a lot in common early in the season. Both clubs have begun to string together wins after some early scuffling. Both boast feared offenses, especially the Mets with their plus-166 run differential from last season. And each squad is anxiously waiting for a superstar to return, with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s suspension ending soon for the Padres, and Mets starter Justin Verlander expects to get back from his injury before the end of April, according to Tim Britton of The Athletic.
Now the Padres will try to rebound from their series-opening loss while relying on inexperienced starter Ryan Weathers. That should lead to plenty of ideal pitcher-batter matchups for the Mets, and there's one, in particular, to jump on now.
Here is our best Padres-Mets prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our MLB best bets for Tuesday.
Padres vs. Mets prediction
A poor stretch in early April doesn't doom a season. Brandon Nimmo might need to be convinced of that right now while down a deep hole with a batting average of just .200, far below his .274 clip in 2022, and an ocean away from the veteran's .292 batting average in 2021. He'll surely shake this early-season slump, but he's recorded just six hits over 42 plate appearances. Just one of those six hits went for extra bases.
All that would usually be petrifying, and a reason to lock yourself in a tightly sealed room, barricade the doors with whatever you can find, and hide from any and all Nimmo props until he finds his way. But even amid the darkness, Nimmo consistently avoids strikeouts, walks like it's his job (it is?), and he keeps getting on base while hitting leadoff for a muscle-filled lineup. He's therefore in a position to score often, despite scuffling at the plate.
Nimmo finished with a 0.61 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 2022, tying him for 19th in baseball. His walk rate was actually down a little by his high standards at 10.5%, though he still ended up among the league's top 35. He finished at 14% in 2021, 14.7% in 2020, and a career-high 18.1% in 2019.
There's a long and firmly established history of plate discipline from Nimmo, and the most recent hi ghlight was his first-career four-walk game just this past Friday.
Nimmo is tied for second early in the season with 10 walks already. That comes after finishing tied for sixth with 246 times on base in 2022. He also reliably keeps his strikeouts low, with an at-bat per strikeout rate of 10.0 so far, tied for ninth league-wide. The outfielder has struck out a mere three times in 2023, and his strikeout and walk rates rank in the 98th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. His strikeout rate also ended at a career-low 17.2% in 2022.
Nimmo's habit of walking and strikeout avoidance has translated to an on-base percentage of .405 through 10 games in 2023, which is impressive considering how little he's hitting. He's scored six runs as a result, five of which have come over his past three games.
It's dot-connecting on easy mode to draw a line between a batter who gets o n base a ton and doesn't strike out often being likely to score, and he hits first for a team that ranked fifth in runs last year. Toss in the opposing starter being a free-pass machine in the minors in 2022 (4.2 walks per nine innings in Triple-A), and the path to success here becomes even clearer.
Check out our World Series odds and MLB MVP odds.
Padres vs. Mets best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -115 | -135 | -111 | -113 | N/A |
As of early Tuesday afternoon, four of our best MLB betting sites are offering this prop. The true number to hide from in that dark and well-fortified room is FanDuel's price, which is hilariously off compared to the others. Go with BetMGM, which offers a slight edge next to DraftKings and Caesars.
Another appealing market through DraftKings at even better odds is Nimmo going Over 0.5 walks at +110. He's recorded multiple walks in three of his 10 games. Also consider him staying Under 0.5 strikeouts, which DraftKings features for -105 odds.
Check out our home run leader odds and MLB rookie of the year odds.
Padres vs. Mets odds
Padres vs. Mets odds analysis
The Mets are widely favored in the -140 to -145 range. BetMGM is the exception at -139, so sprint there to make your play on New York before that line adjusts. Meanwhile, the Padres reside around +120, and there's a similar standout among our best sportsbooks, with FanDuel offering +124 odds.
As for the total, four of our five best MLB betting sites are setting it at 9. BetMGM is alone at 8.5, though you're paying a -133 premium price for the Over. If you're expecting two explosive offenses to erupt in a weaker pitching matchup than Monday, take the higher number and the market-best -105 price via Caesars Sportsbook. PointsBet and DraftKings offer -110 odds, while FanDuel sits at -108. BetMGM is the best destination for an Under play, as it's sitting at +110.
The action is almost evenly split across the board, with the Under currently drawing 52% of bets, and the Mets attracting 54% on the moneyline.
Check out our MLB hits leader odds a nd MLB RBI leader odds.
Padres vs. Mets game info
- Date: Tuesday, April 11, 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: SNY, Bally Sports San Diego, TBS
- Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
- Weather: 66 degrees with a 20% chance of precipitation and 17-mph westerly winds
Padres-Mets pick made 4/11/2023 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
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