All 30 teams are in action on a jampacked Tuesday Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
The Toronto Blue Jays are the only team left in the league yet to play a home game, but that ends Tuesday when they welcome the Detroit Tigers to town. The Tigers have lost four straight and have the second-worst winning percentage of all American League teams.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New York Yankees (-175) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+150)
- Oakland Athletics (+165) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-195)
- Houston Astros (-180) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+155)
- Boston Red Sox (+155) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
- Miami Marlins (+135) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-155)
- Detroit Tigers (+230) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-275)
- San Diego Padres (+120) vs. New York Mets (-140)
- Cincinnati Reds (+195) vs. Atlanta Braves (-230)
- Chicago White Sox (+130) vs. Minnesota Twins (-150)
- Seattle Mariners (-110) vs. Chicago Cubs (-110)
- Kansas City Royals (+235) vs. Texas Rangers (-280)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-165) vs. Colorado Rockies (+140)
- Washington Nationals (+250) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-300)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-140) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+120)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) vs. San Francisco Giants (+135)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Aaron Nola Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Marlins (-170 via DraftKings) ????
- Player prop: Marcus Semien to score a run vs. Royals (-125 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Mookie Betts 1.5 total bases vs. Giants (-125 via FanDuel) ???
- Upset: Diamondbacks ML vs. Brewers (+120 via WynnBet) ????
Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola is coming off a season where he led the league with a 1.3 BB/9 rate and 8.10 strikeouts per win. Thus, we expect positive regression from the command department, as Nola's 2.8 walks per nine innings through two starts are on pace to be the third-worst of his career.
Nola has had bad luck in his career against the Miami Marlins, going just 5-8 with a respectable 3.18 ERA in 20 career starts against them. However, his 1.013 WHIP against the Marlins is easily his best against any NL East opponent, and his overall career ERA, WHIP, K/9, and winning percentage are all better in night starts than day starts. Thus, we expect a big outing from Nola, wh o has limited current Marlins to a .151/.226/.234 slash line in 93 combined at-bats.
While the -170 odds at DraftKings are steep, they are much more affordable than the -208 found at Caesars.
Texas Rangers leadoff hitter Marcus Semien entered Monday tied for second in the team lead in runs (six), hits (nine), and RBIs (six), and his 14 total bases were third among all Texas hitters. Semien will need to improve upon his .222 on-base percentage to cross the plate more consistently in the future but has an excellent chance to do so against Royals righty Jordan Lyles.
Semien is slashing .500/.579/.875 in his career against Lyles, and four of his eight hits have gone for extra bases. In addition, Semien has struck out just once in 16 at-bats against Lyles, suggesting he sees the ball well out of his hand.
Semien had a 47.2% FB, .184 ISO, and a .298 wOBA v ersus righties in 2022. Thus, those numbers are a big reason why oddsmakers expect him to score a run, as his odds at Caesars (-131) and FanDuel (-165) are much steeper than at DraftKings to do so.
Mookie Betts is one of four Los Angeles Dodgers to play every game this season, yet entered Monday ranked fifth on the team in total bases (16). However, he has owned San Francisco Giants southpaw Alex Wood in the past, accumulating an absurd 2.188 OPS as five of hits nine hits in 14 at-bats have gone for extra bases, including three home runs. Wood allowed an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph in his first start (his previous career worst for a season was 89.7), and his xERA of 5.74 compared to his actual ERA of 3.00 suggests there is likely to be early regression following a short three-inning stint.
Betts is coming off his best offensive game of the season, a 3-for-5 night with a home run and three runs scored a gainst San Francisco. We like for him to continue that hot streak, but FanDuel is the only sportsbook at the time of this writing to post batter props for this game, so bettors may want to check in at other sportsbooks for better numbers later.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly will likely be happy not to face the Dodgers, who he pitched against in each of his first two starts. Kelly fell to 0-10 with a 5.70 ERA in 14 career starts against Los Angeles. Yet despite seeing one of the biggest World Series favorites in both starts, Kelly leads all Diamondbacks starting pitchers in ERA (3.86) and WAR (0.2).
Kelly has struggled with command in the early part of the season (four walks in both outings) but should pitch more freely and confidently against a Milwaukee Brewers team he has not lost to since 2019 (2-0 against them in his last four starts). The righty has held current Brewers to a .215/.271/.434 slash line and Milwaukee has won fewer than 55% of its games as road favorites (67-55) since 2020.
Arizona has won four straight games and is now 4-1 at home this season, so we are jumping at the opportunity to get these plus odds at WynnBet.
MLB best bets made 4/11/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.
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