Pick on the Moneyline for Cardinals-Rockies on April 11

It was been a slow start for the St. Louis Cardinals, entering their series on the road against the Colorado Rockies 3-6 after being the consensus favorite at sports books to win the National League Central in the preseason and look to bounce back on Tuesday.

St. Louis Cardinals (-170, 11.5) vs. Colorado Rockies

After being an All-Star in 2022, Miles Mikolas has started the 2023 with a pair of rough starts, allowing five runs in each of his first two starts of the season, both of which resulted in losses for the Cardinals.

Mikolas' struggles stem back to the end of the 2022 season, posting a 4.93 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed in his last 16 appearances since the end of July of 2022, which includes allowing 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start at Coors Field in August of 2022.

The Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland, who has not allowed a run in his two starts across 12 2/3 innings, leading the team to two of the four wins they had this season entering the series.

For his career, Freeland has had an elevated ERA at home, posting a 4.69 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine allowed at home compared to a 3.73 road ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed.

Despite the raw numbers at home being worse for Freeland, he has a lifetime 29-24 home record compared to a 22-27 road record due to how much the ballpark's elevation inflated offense.

The Rockies a season ago led the league in runs per game at home while being the lone MLB team to average fewer than three runs per game away from home.

Colorado typically has the most extreme home and road splits in the league and are coming off a 2022 season in which they went 41-40 at home and 27-54 away from home.

After being last among all MLB teams in bullpen ERA last season, the offseason acquisitions of Brad Hand and Pierce Johnson should pay dividends and give Freeland and the Rockies enough help to scratch out a win on Tuesday.

The Play: Rockies +145

  
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