Four of the 10 games on the schedule have been rained out, leaving bettors a much smaller six-game slate from which to choose. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.
Four teams play their home openers Thursday (Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves, and Arizona Diamondbacks), while the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, and Minnesota Twins will have to wait at least one more day for their first home games.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Boston Red Sox (-145) vs. Detroit Tigers (+125)
- San Francisco Giants (+115) vs. Chicag o White Sox (-135)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-200) vs. Kansas City Royals (+170)
- Washington Nationals (+130) vs. Colorado Rockies (-150)
- San Diego Padres (+140) vs. Atlanta Braves (-165)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+125)
Thursday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Blake Snell Under outs recorded vs. Braves (OFF) ????
- Player prop: Joc Pederson Under 0.5 hits vs. White Sox (+130 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Will Smith Over 1.5 total bases vs. Diamondbacks (+110 via DraftKings) ????
- Alternate Runline: Blue Jays -2.5 vs. Royals (+130 via DraftKings) ???
Thursday's MLB prop picks
San Diego Padres southpaw Blake Snell could not continue his momentum from a dazzling second half of last season when he pitched to a 2.19 ERA compared to a 5.22 ERA in the first half. Those splits have been emblematic of Snell's entire career, as he has a .423 winning percentage and 4.08 ERA in 82 appearances (81 starts) in the first half but a .674 winning percentage and 2.68 ERA in 68 career second-half starts.
Snell has averaged just over five innings (5.08) per first-half appearance, as his .700 OPS and .306 BAbip allowed have gotten him into trouble. He now faces a Braves lineup that ranked in the top five of wRC+ (118), ISO (.179), and BAbip (.323) against left-handed pitching last season.
The only pitcher props available at the moment for this game are each player's strikeout totals, but we would play this number down to 15.5 when it becomes available. If no “outs recorded” prop becomes available, we would fire away at Snell's Under 6.5 strikeout line.
San Francisco Giants designated hitter Joc Pederson has been the epi tome of an all-or-nothing hitter through the first five games, as two of his four hits (in 19 at-bats) have been home runs. However, Pederson has also struck out eight times, and those struggles should continue against a pitcher that he has had a difficult time with throughout his career.
Pederson is 0-for-11 with five strikeouts against White Sox starter Lance Lynn. Lynn struck out six batters in 5 2/3 innings in his first start, and three of his pitches (cutter, four-seam fastball, and curveball) generated at least a 43.8% whiff percentage. We are running to DraftKings to get this line at plus-money odds.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly failed to exorcise his demons against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start, lasting just 3 2/3 innings despite not allowing an earned run. Los Angeles drove his pitch count up to 74 quickly as a result of three hits and four walks, and Kelly remains 0-9 in 13 career starts aga inst the Dodgers with a 5.64 ERA and 1.627 WHIP (his highest against any opponent he has made more than one start against).
In his two plate appearances against Kelly, Will Smith walked and hit a hard ball right to the left fielder. However, Smith is still slashing .318/.360/.500 in 22 career at-bats against Kelly and also has homered in three consecutive games. Given Smith's hot streak, we may not be getting the best price for this number, but we are still excited to back him in the midst of his torrid stretch.
FanDuel is offering -105 odds and Caesars is at +104 for the same number, so the best value is again found at DraftKings.
Thursday's MLB game picks
The Kansas City Royals entered Wednesday's game against the Toronto Blue Jays with one of the most anemic offenses in baseball thus far. Kansas City has scored the fewest runs in MLB (14) a nd has four games through the first six with four or fewer hits.
Now the Royals face Toronto's Kevin Gausman, who has finished in the top nine of the Cy Young voting each of the last two seasons and is coming off a season where he led the league in FIP (2.38) and strikeouts per win (7.32). Making matters worse, Royals starting pitcher Jordan Lyles has allowed a .284/.357/.534 slash line to current Blue Jays hitters over 116 combined at-bats.
Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman has done the most damage with five home runs in 21 at-bats against Lyles, and we look for him to lead an offensive explosion for the Blue Jays, which has us comfortable backing the alternate run-line in this series finale. DraftKings' +130 odds to lay -2.5 runs is more appealing than the +122 at FanDuel and the +116 at Caesars.
MLB best bets made 4/6/2023 at 8:18 a.m. ET.
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