NBA picks: Kings vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report

The Dallas Mavericks (37-42) will play host to the Sacramento Kings (48-31) as both teams have just three games left to play in the regular season. Dallas is on the outside of the playoff picture, but just half a game behind 10th-place Oklahoma City as the Mavs look to chase down a play-in spot. The Kings sit in third and have already clinched a playoff berth. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET tonight from American Airlines Center.

The Kings could be resting some of their key players on the second night of a back-to-back, including Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox in preparation for the playoffs. The Mavs could rest both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but chances are both will be on the floor given the urgency of their situation in the standings.

The Mavericks are 6.5-point favorites at home, priced at -255 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Kings are +215 while the point total is set at 241.5.

Kings vs. Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Kings +6.5

While Sacramento could easily rest their big players and accept their spot as the No. 3 seed, they also still have a chance to take over the No. 2 seed from the Grizzlies as they own the tiebreaker over Memphis. If Mike Brown opts to play his first-choice lineup, expect the Kings to thwart the Mavericks' attempt at climbing into the play-in picture.

Dallas has lost its last three games, and seven of the last eight outings to essentially limp toward the end of the season. Doncic and Irving haven't quite been the dynamic duo many hoped they'd be as the Mavs are on the brink of missing the postseason for the first time since 2019.

Even if the Kings play it safe, they have plenty of depth in guys like Malik Monk and Davion Mitchell that can excel when given enough playing time. The Mavericks are in a dire situation but their recent form suggests it might be too steep of a hill to climb. Take the Kings to cover.

Over/Under: Under 241.5

This is a surprisingly high total, but to be fair, the Mavericks just blew their 246 total out of the water against the Hawks the other night with a 132-130 final score in OT. Unless this one goes to overtime as well, take the under as the safe play tonight.

  
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