Phillies-Yankees prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, April 5

The Phillies and Yankees wrap up the battle for I-95 on Wednesday, April 5, after splitting the first two games of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. New York shelled Taijuan Walker for an easy win on Monday, while Philly finally notched their first win of the 2023 season last night with a 4-1 victory.

The Yankees are listed as -165 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies check in as +140 underdogs.

Phillies-Yankees picks: Wednesday, April 5th

Phillies:

Out: SP Ranger Suarez (left forearm), RP Christopher Sanchez (left tricep tightness), RP Nick Nelson (left hamstring strain), SP Noah Song (back tightness), DH/RF Bryce Harper (Tommy John), 1B Rhys Hoskins (torn left ACL), C Rafael Marchan (right hamate fracture), SP Andrew Painter (sprained UCL in right elbow)

Yankees:

Out: Harrison Bader (left oblique strain), SP Carlos Rodon (left elbow strain), SP Luis Severino (right lat strain), RP Tommy Kahnle (right biceps tendinitis), Lou Trivino (right elbow ligament sprain), C Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm), SP Frankie Montas (right shoulder inflammation), RP Scott Effross (Tommy John), RP Luis Gil (Tommy John)

Aaron Nola vs. Gerrit Cole

What a matchup. Nola has carved up the Yankees in his three career starts against New York, with a 2.37 ERA and 26 strikeouts in just 19 innings. The ace did get off to a bumpy start to the 2023 season, though, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings against the Rangers on Opening Day. It's also worth noting that Nola has long been one of the slowest operators on the mound with runners on base in his career, which could make for a more difficult transition to the new pitch clock rules.

Cole had no such problems in his Opening Day start, punching out 11 Giants in six shutout innings to earn his first win of the season. His experience against Philly came largely during his time with the Pirates, but he still boasts a career 3.12 ERA in eight starts against them.

I'll admit that there's some cause for concern with Nola based on how he looked in his first start in Texas, but this is still one of the very best starters in the game, and one who's had a lot of success against a righty-heavy Yankees lineup that can sometimes struggle against powerful right-handed pitching. Cole, meanwhile, looked every bit like his Cy Young self on Opening Day, making the under look like a pretty good bet on a relatively chilly afternoon in the Bronx.

Pick: Under 6.5

It's a small sample size, but Nola's numbers against New York – and how tough a matchup he can be against righties like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton – have me leaning towards the Phillies, especially at +140. This has the feeling of a pitchers duel where Trea Turner or Kyle Schwarber are able to break through in the later innings to give Philly a tight win.

Pick: Phillies

  
Read Full Article