Can we trust the process against the Boston Celtics on Tuesday? Jon Metler shares two of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Tuesday's games, using the latest NBA odds.
Over the last several days, Joel Embiid has become a -210 favorite to win the NBA MVP award, and a game on TNT against the Boston Celtics presents an ideal opportunity to seize control of this market.
The Philadelphia 76ers star has the narrative to have a career-defining game, but what does the math say about his player props?
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Tuesday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Tuesday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Celtics-76ers | Embiid 35+ points/12+ rebounds | +338 |
| Kings-Pelicans | McCollum Over 5.5 assists, Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds | +300 |
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Celtics vs. 76ers odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Celtics vs. 76ers
If Embiid's tired of finishing second to Nikola Jokic in the NBA MVP voting the last two seasons, here's his chance. We've got the narrative and the math to back Embiid for a monster game.
Embiid is projected to score 33.8 points on Tuesday against the Celtics, so he can be priced at +125 to score 35-plus points. Instead of using the alternate total, you could play Embiid Over 31.5 points (-115) on FanDuel, but we actually have a higher expected value on the 35-plus prop.
At -115, Embiid Over 31.5 points has an expected value of 11 %, while at +160, Embiid 35-plus points has an expected value of 16%. Even though it feels riskier, it's actually the better bet.
It was possible for us to attack Embiid's alternate points prop in order to increase our edge, but this is not the case with his rebounding prop. If we bet on Embiid for 12-plus rebounds at +135 on FanDuel, our expected value is below 1%, but it increases to 4.5% if we bet on his total of Over 10.5 rebounds (-104).
It's projected that Embiid will grab 11.1 rebounds on Tuesday against the Celtics, which allows us to price this prop at -114. This edge is likely to disappear throughout the day, as DraftKings is trading the Over 10.5 rebounds at -125 and Caesars is at -114. This prop should only be used in your same-game parlay if you can purchase the juice at -114 or better.
NBA SGP predictions: Kings vs. Pelicans
When it comes to sports betting, I never forget anything, and I remember making a same-game parlay on March 6 and using this exact same prop in the game between the Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans. I laid -148 for Over 5.5 assists because I thought that was a solid price, so imagine what I think of the +102 we're receiving on Tuesday.
The last time we attempted this against the Kings, Pelicans guard CJ McCollum gave us a red X, but that's not going to stop me from placing a bet on his assists prop on Tuesday. McCollum is projected to drop 6.6 dimes on the Kings, which allows us to price this prop at -170.
Last time he played the Kings, the projection was similar, which is why I laid the -148. This time around, we have a significantly higher expected value, so I'm hoping that we will be rewarded with a green checkmark.
Domantas Sabonis only had 11 rebounds in his last game against the Pelicans on March 6, and the Kings center has not surpassed 12.5 rebounds in the past four games, which is perfect for an anti-trends bettor.
The projections for Sabonis are just barely over his total of 12.5 rebounds at 13.1, but it's the price of +102 that draws your attention. Based on this projection, Sabonis can be priced at -110 to go over his total of 12.5 rebounds. That means this bet has a positive expected value of 6%.
NBA player prop picks made 4/4/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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