All but two teams are in action on Tuesday around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
The Philadelphia Phillies made the wrong kind of history to start the season, becoming the third team in the wild-card era to begin 0-3 after making the World Series the previous year. Philadelphia dropped to 0-4 Monday with an 8-1 loss to the New York Yankees and now turns to free-agent starting pitcher Matt Strahm to earn its first victory of the season. For further historical perspective, the 2021 Atlanta Braves are the only one of the 118 World Series champions to start 0-4.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via Caesars, DraftKings, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) vs. San Diego Padres (-150)
- Chicago Cubs (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+115)
- Minnesota Twins (+120) vs. Miami Marlins (-140)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+135) vs. New York Yankees (-155)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-180) vs. Washington Nationals (+155)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) vs. Boston Red Sox (-140)
- New York Mets (-165) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+140)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-170) vs. Kansas City Royals (+145)
- Atlanta Braves (+110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-130)
- Baltimore Orioles (+115) vs. Texas Rangers (-135)
- Detroit Tigers (+235) vs. Houston Astros (-280)
- Los Angeles Angels (+145) vs. Seattle Mariners (-170)
- Cleveland Guardians (-195) vs. Oakland Athletics (+165)
- Colorado Rockies (+215) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-255)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Sandy Alcantara to record win vs. Twins (+140 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Kris Bubic Under 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (-115 via Caesars) ????
- Player prop: Julio Rodriguez to score run vs. Angels (+100 via DraftKings) ????
- Total: Rockies vs. Dodgers Under 7.5 (-110 via PointsBet) ????
Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Minnesota is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the league but is about to meet its match against the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. Sandy Alcantara went seven-plus innings in 22 of his 32 starts last year, which was the most since Chris Sale went that deep in 23 games in 2016. His 2.28 ERA was second only to Julio Urias, and he threw the most innings (228.2) and complete games (six) in the majors. Alcantara was undone by four walks (though he allowed just three hits) against the Mets, but we are not concerned about a lack of control going forward, as his 5.6% walk rate last year was the lowest of his career.
This is a three-star play as the Twins were 51-62 against righties last year and 39-53 against teams over .500. Though the Marlins were 24 games under .500 last year, they went 19-14 in Alcantara's starts last year. We are making this play at DraftKings, which offers odds much better than the +117 found at Caesars.
Royals southpaw Kris Bubic's 5.58 ERA was the fourth-worst of any starting pitcher who threw a minimum of 120 innings last year. Thus, we do not expect him to last very long against a Blue Jays lineup that ranked second in the American League with 775 runs scored last year. Bubic's xSLG, xBA, and XERA/xwOBA were all in the ninth percentile or worse, and his 44.9% hard-hit percentage suggests the Blue Jays lineup should do damage in this game. Bubic ranked in the 22nd percentile in K rate last season, and Toronto's hitters had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate a season ago.
Caesars provides the best odds for this number, as DraftKings is as high as -125.
Mariners phenom Julio Rodriguez entered Monday with the team lead of 11 total bases out of the leadoff spot. And though he was tied for the team lead with six strikeouts, that should not be an issue when facing Angels starter Jose Suarez, who finished last season below average in K% (45th percentile) and whiff percentage (41st percentile). Rodriguez had a team-leading .356 BABIP against southpaws last season, and he is protected in the lineup by first baseman Ty France, who has a career slash line of .357/.412/.643 against Suarez.
Though FanDuel and Caesars have odds at -105 or higher, the easy choice is to make this wager at DraftKings and take advantage of the plus-money odds.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Rockies starter German Marquez had a 2022 to forget, as his 4.95 ERA, 4.49 xERA, and 1.4 WAR were all his worst since his rookie year when he appeared in just six games. However, much of that was a product of pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field, as his 3.34 road ERA was much more respectable. Marquez entered the season with a career 3.76 road ERA and pitched brilliantly on Opening Day at Petco Park, limiting the high-powered Padres lineup to five hits and two runs over six innings.
Marquez is opposed by Julio Urias, who finished third in the Cy Young voting after leading the league in ERA (2.16) and ERA+ (194). He allowed three earned runs in 11 home innings against Colorado last year, and we expect him to pick up where he left off with a 1.05 ERA over the final two months of the regular season.
This is a solid four-star play, as the Under is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings between these teams. We are making this wager at PointsBet, the only sportsbook not juiced at -115 or higher to back the Under.
MLB best bets made 4/4/2023 at 6:20 a.m. ET.
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