Steals are most definitely one of the biggest talking points of the new Major League Baseball season. With so many players running wild, can we find value in the stolen base market? Find out with our best MLB stolen base prop picks based on the best MLB odds.
Welcome to baseball in 2023. Thanks to the new bases and pickoff rules, as well as the pitch clock, baserunners are attempting steals at an otherworldly pace. The success rate on those attempts has gone way up, as well.
Despite this rapidly changing landscape, we're still able to find some value in the stolen base market for Monday.
Here are our top MLB stolen base prop picks for Monday (odds via DraftKings, BetMGM, and theScore Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB stolen base props
- Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 s teals (+450 via theScore Bet) ????
- Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 steals (+450 via DraftKings) ???
- Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 steals (+475 via BetMGM) ???
Monday's MLB stolen base prop picks
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has the highest stolen base projection for Monday's games, according to NumberFire. He's yet to steal a base through his first three contests – he's seemingly the only player who hasn't – after swiping 32 in 2022. However, the main reason for this is that Arozarena has yet to be on first with no baserunner in front of him.
Arozarena led the league in number of times caught stealing last year with a total of 44 stolen base attempts (one attempt per 3.7 games). So, if you're not a fan of projections and math, you could simply argue that he's due for an attempt on Monday.
Despite the projections and track record, Arozarena owns odds as long as +450, which come with an implied probability of 18.8%. Arozarena should be priced closer to those players in the +270 range, so we'll take advantage of this generous number.
Similar to Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm has yet to attempt a steal thus far. Perhaps the biggest reason for this is his spot in the lineup. Chisholm attempted 17 steals in 60 games last year (one every 3.5 games), but 11 of those came in 38 contests at the leadoff spot.
Chisholm has hit either third or in the cleanup spot to start the season, as the Miami Marlins use Luis Arraez at leadoff. Miami has started the campaign with a 1-3 record, though, so perhaps it makes a change and shifts Chisholm to leadoff with the scorching-hot Arraez hitting behind him – the Marlins already moved Chisholm from cleanup to third in their last game.
Regardless of whether such a move is made, Chisholm is projected to be one of Monday's marquee base-stealers. He owns the third-highest projection, according to NumberFire, but his odds don't reflect that.
I would take advantage of this number, as any change to Miami's lineup could push Chisholm closer to +300 or shorter.
Unlike Arozarena and Chisholm, Julio Rodriguez has already started running this season. The Seattle Mariners star has one steal on two attempts after going 25-for-32 last year.
The reigning American League Rookie of the Year owns the sixth-highest stolen base projection for Monday's action, per NumberFire. With the Mariners starting the season 1-3, Rodriguez may look to provide an early spark against the AL West rival Los Angeles Angels.
Left-hander Reid Detmers takes the mound for the Angels, which in years past would push me away from betting this prop. However, thanks to the new pickoff limitations, I'm less worried about Rodriguez being as hesitant as baserunners used to be against southpaws.
As is the case with Arozarena and Chisholm, Rodriguez's price doesn't match that of those with similar projections on Monday, especially since he's already proven he's ready to run in 2023.
MLB stolen base prop picks made 04/03/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
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