While everyone else tries to avoid the play-in tournament, the Dallas Mavericks are attempting to make it into the top 10 seeds. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler examines the odds for participating in the play-in tournament using the latest NBA odds.
It's the final week of the NBA regular season, and we still don't know who will participate in the Western Conference play-in tournament. Is it possible for the Los Angeles Lakers to leapfrog the Golden State Warriors and finish with one of the top six seeds?
What about the Mavericks? Will the NBA playoffs include Luka Doncic? I'm feeling Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels vibes.
2023 NBA Play-In Tournament odds
| Team | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | -8000 | -10000 |
| Brooklyn Nets | +2000 | +2000 |
| Orlando Magic | +30000 | +25000 |
Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!
For the most part, the Eastern Conference play-in tournament has already been decided, with the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks securing two of the four spots. The real question is whether the Miami Heat can catch the Brooklyn Nets for the sixth seed and avoid the play-in tournament.
It seems unlikely as the Nets are projected to finish the season with 45 wins, while the Heat are projected to finish with 43 wins. The odds reflect this sentiment, with the Heat trading at -8000 and the Nets trading at +2000 to compete in the play-in tournament.
I find it somewhat amusing that the Chicago Bulls are not listed in the odds, but the Orlando Magic are trading at +25000. In order for Orlando to qualify for the play-in tournament, the Magic must win their rem aining four games and the Bulls must lose their final four games.
The Eastern Conference play-in tournament futures market has little remaining to wager on; it's the Western Conference that has taken center stage.
| Team | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | -5000 | -5000 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | -210 | -210 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -200 | -200 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -155 | -155 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +105 | +105 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +160 | +160 |
| Golden State Warriors | +175 | +175 |
| Utah Jazz | +3000 | +3000 |
| Phoenix Suns | +20000 | +25000 |
Previously, if you told me that the Mavericks would participate in the Western Conference play-in tournament, I would have thought it was the worst case scenario for the Mavericks. However, at this point in the season, participating in the play-in tournament represents the Mavericks' best case scenario.
It's projected that the Mavericks will finish the season with 39 wins, the same number as the Oklahoma City Thunder and one game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves. The larger problem for the Mavericks is that they don't even hold the tiebreaker over either of these teams.
It's projected that the Lakers will finish the season with 42 wins, one game behind the Warriors who are expected to win 43 games. There's a one-game difference in the projected standings that may be decisive for who ends up in the play-in tournament between the Lak ers and Warriors since the Lakers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
As for the Los Angeles Clippers, they're also projected to win 43 games, but they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Lakers and would also win a three-way tiebreaker against the Lakers and Warriors.
While the Lakers looked like a lock to qualify for the play-in tournament near the trade deadline, they're now trading at only -155 to participate in the play-in tournament, since they have a realistic chance of making it into the top six seeds and a true playoff berth.
NBA play-in tournament FAQ
The NBA play-in tournament determines the final two seeds from each conference in the NBA playoffs, as only the top six seeds are guaranteed a spot. In the past, the top eight seeds were guaranteed a spot, but now the team that ranks ninth or 10th in the standings can play their way into the playoffs.
The ninth and 10th seeds will face off, with the winner of that game having the opportunity to steal the eighth seed from the loser of the game featuring the seventh and eighth seed.
You need to win only one game to make the playoffs if you finish the regular season as the seventh or eighth seed. For a team to qualify for the playoffs if it finishes ninth or 10th in its respective conference, two games must be won.
| Date | Matchup |
|---|---|
| April 11 | East 7 vs. East 8 |
| April 11 | West 7 vs. West 8 |
| April 12 | East 9 vs. East 10 |
| April 12 | West 9 vs. West 10 |
| April 14 | East 7/8 loser vs. East 9/10 winner |
| April 14 | West 7/8 loser vs. West 9/10 winner |
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