The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Pirates are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 1-1 ATS.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
• Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
• Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 83 away games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 1-1 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -18.18% ROI).

• 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 10% ROI
• 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.38% ROI
• 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 1-1 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 20% ROI).

• 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -14.04% ROI
• 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.38% ROI
• 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Vince Velasquez allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.9 MPH (220 batted balls) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.6 — 0 Percentile.

Vince Velasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .368 (143 Total Bases / 389 ABs) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .267 — first Percentile.

Vince Velasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.393 (162 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the 2020 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 1.063 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (166/485) against Vince Velasquez since the 2021 season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Graham Ashcraft has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 13rd, 2022 — tied with Shohei Ohtani for the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft threw fastballs 77% of the time (989/1,286) in non-two strike counts in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.

  
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