The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 1-1 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
TJ Friedl | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
TJ Friedl | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Velasquez | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Velasquez | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 83 away games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 1-1 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -18.18% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 10% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.38% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 1-1 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 20% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -14.04% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.38% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Vince Velasquez allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.9 MPH (220 batted balls) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.6 — 0 Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .368 (143 Total Bases / 389 ABs) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .267 — first Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.393 (162 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the 2020 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 1.063 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (166/485) against Vince Velasquez since the 2021 season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 13rd, 2022 — tied with Shohei Ohtani for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft threw fastballs 77% of the time (989/1,286) in non-two strike counts in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.