The first series of the Major League Baseball season wrap up on a jampacked Sunday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.
Parity is already showing in Major League Baseball as just four teams (Rays, Twins, Rangers, and Braves) vie for sweeps in the finales of the first series of the season.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Detroit Tigers (+195) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-230)
- Atlanta Braves (-190) vs. Washington Nationals (+160)
- Baltimore Orioles (+120) vs. Boston Red Sox (-140)
- San Francisco Giants (+125) vs. New York Yankees (-145)
- New York Mets (-120) vs. Miami Marlins (+100)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-135)
- Chicago White Sox (+145) vs. Houston Astros (-170)
- Minnesota Twins (-150) vs. Kansas City Royals (+130)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-115)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+105) vs. Chicago Cubs (-125)
- Los Angeles Angels (-165) vs. Oakland Athletics (+140)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-180)
- Cleveland Guardians (-110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-110)
- Colorado Rockies (+190) vs. San Diego Padres (-225)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. Texas Rangers (-115)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Cardinals (+200 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Joe Ryan 5+ strikeouts + Twins win vs. Royals (+110 via FanDuel) ????
- Player prop: Alec Bohm 2+ total bases vs. Rangers (+105 via FanDuel) ????
- Moneyline: Yankees ML vs. Giants (-145 via BetMGM) ???
Sunday's MLB prop picks
Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette is familiar with Cardinals southpaw Jordan Montgomery from his time with the Yankees. Bichette often got the better of Montgomery with six hits in 11 at-bats (.545 average), good for a 1.273 slugging percentage and 1.856 OPS.
Bichette has protection in the lineup from two-time All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who also has a .250/.357/.500 slash line against Montgomery. Thus, Montgomery will have to pitch to Bichette, and the shortstop is the most likely candidate to do damage, considering three other Blue Jays (Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, and George Springer) are slugging .308 or worse in 35 combined at-bats against the lefty.
DraftKings provides the best value for this prop, as its +200 odds trump the +155 found at FanDuel and +184 at Caesars.
The Twins-Royals O/U of 9.5 is the highest of any game on today's slate, which is worrisome for this prop since it suggests neither starting pitcher may be around long. However, we think the high total has more to do with Minnesota's chances of success against Kansas City starter Brad Keller, whose .300 winning percentage in 2022 (6-14) was the worst of his career. In addition, Keller's 5.09 ERA was the sixth-worst of any pitcher who threw a minimum of 130 innings last year.
Conversely, Joe Ryan has held current Royals to a .125/.192/.215 slash line and struck out 26 batters in 72 combined at-bats. Ryan generated a 25.2% whiff percentage in those 78 combined plate appearances, and his 16 expected home runs at Kauffman Stadium are tied for the lowest at any visiting ballpark, per Baseball Savant.
This four-star play can be found at FanDuel under “Player Performance Doubles.” Those that are keen on Ryan's strikeout potential can find his odds of recording six or more strikeouts and the Twins winning at +185.
Philadelphia third baseman Alec Bohm is on the verge of a breakout season if he can continue to improve his numbers against fastballs. Two years ago, Bohm faced over 1,000 fastballs and hit just .190 against them. Last year, Bohm hit .295 and slugged .410 against four-seamers. And on Opening Day, he homered on a 99-mph fastball from Rangers ace Jacob deGrom and was a triple short of the cycle.
That performance was an extension of a torrid spring, during which Bohm hit four home runs and slugged .518. Now he faces a pitcher in Martin Perez, whom he is 7-for-13 against, with a 1.308 OPS and five RBIs. Oddsmakers project a high-scoring game with an O/U of 8.5 runs, and we expect Bohm to be a part of that action.
DraftKings has Bohm's Over of 1.5 total bases set at +100, while Caesars is at an even less attractive -107.
Sunday's MLB game picks
It is not often bettors can get the Yankees at such reasonably low odds as home favorites, so we are excited to jump at the opportunity.
New York is a moderate favorite since it sends Jhony Brito to the mound, as its rotation is ravaged by injuries (Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodon, and Luis Severino all missed their first turn through the rotation). However, Brito had solid numbers at Double- and Triple-A last year, pitching to a 2.96 ERA in 112 2/3 innings. He followed that up with a 2.08 ERA in 23 Grapefruit League innings this year.
Brito is opposed by Ross Stripling, against whom Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all have an OPS of .800 or higher in 31 combined at-bats.
The Yankees tied for an MLB-best 57 home wins in the regular season last year, while the Giants were a poor 12-29 as road underdogs.
MLB best bets made 4/2/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.
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