:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72137050/usa_today_20338416.0.jpg "FAU-San Diego State prediction: Moneyline pick for Final Four in 2023 NCAA Tournament")
The No. 9 seed FAU Owls will look to keep their Cinderella run going into the national title when they take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the Final Four on Saturday, April 1. The game will get started at 6:09 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, and can be seen on CBS.
San Diego State is a slight favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with -130 moneyline odds with FAU checking in as +110 underdogs.
No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State: Moneyline Pick
FAU (35-3, 18-2 Conference USA) will bring an 11-game winning streak into Saturday night's matchup. The Owls avoided the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in the region but still won some tough games to get to this point. On the road to the Final Four, FAU beat the No. 8 seed Memphis Tigers (66-65), No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (78-70), No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers (62-55) and No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats (79-76). The Owls will enter 17th overall in KenPom including 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 30th defensively. FAU outrebounded KSU 44-22 in the Elite Eight to make up for turning the ball over 22 times.
San Diego State (31-6, 15-3 Mountain West) won eight in a row in its impressive run that included knocking off the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs' run included wins over No. 12 seed Charleston Cougars (63-57), No. 13 Furman Paladins (75-52), No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (71-64) and No. 6 Creighton Bluejays (57-56). The Aztecs are 14th in KenPom with a defense that rates fourth in adjusted efficiency while the offense is 74th. San Diego State survived a poor shooting day that included 37.9% from the floor and 23.1% from 3-point range in the Elite Eight win over Creighton. Darrion Trammell knocked down a free throw with a second left to send the Aztecs to their first Final Four in program history.
Pick: San Diego State -130
The Owls love to let the three ball fly as they rank 18th nationally in attempts per game from beyond the arc (26.2), but the Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country and excel at defending the 3-point line. San Diego State allows opponents to hit just 27.7% shots from deep, and it should be even more of a focal point for the Aztecs to shut down in this matchup. San Diego State is headed to the national title game.