Since 2002, there have only been two seasons in which a team didn’t go from worst to first in one of the divisions. While a lot of bettors get caught thinking that the NFL is a straightforward, highly predictable market, the reality is the opposite.
Last season, 19 of the 32 teams were at least + /- 1.5 wins relative to their consensus season win total line. Of those 19 teams, 12 were at least + /- 2.5 wins relative to their season win total. Skipping over the 2020 COVID season as an outlier (for many reasons), the 2019 season also saw 19 teams finish at least + /- 1.5 wins relative to the consensus line.
In other words, don’t be afraid to take a stronger stance on a team if you think their win total line is mispriced for any number of reasons. Maybe you like the personnel more than the market. Maybe you view the schedule more favorably or think it will be harder than expected. Whatever the reason, there is often equity in taking your shot at bigger payouts.
In this piece, I give an opinion on all 32 NFL win totals for the 2022 season, broken into four tiers of confidence.