Baltimore Ravens Alt Win Total Over 10.5 (+ 135)
Adam Burke: The Over 9.5 at -160 is an option, but the Ravens are the best team in the AFC North. They ranked 32nd in Adjusted Games Lost per Football Outsiders with 191.2. That was 33 more than any other team in the NFL. They lost running backs and defensive backs early and then lost Lamar Jackson later in the season. While Baltimore went from 8-3 to 8-9, a severely banged-up roster with a backup quarterback lost those six games by 1, 2, 1, 20, 1 and 3 points, with four of those losses against playoff teams, including the two Super Bowl participants.
The Browns clearly have their issues with Deshaun Watson’s suspension. Many project the Bengals to fall back a bit. The Steelers may be in line for their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore goes 5-1 or 4-2 in the division. The AFC East and NFC South are the divisions the Ravens drew on the schedule, but they also added Jacksonville and the Giants on the road along with Denver at home with their last-place schedule. While all three are improved, so, too, are the Ravens.
This team should be the AFC North champion and 11 or 12 wins should accomplish that feat, along with going Over this alternate win total.
Chicago Bears Under 6.5 (-190)
Matt Youmans: If there’s hope for Chicago, it comes with a coaching change. Matt Nagy, far from an offensive wizard, is out and Matt Eberflus is in after serving as the Colts’ defensive coordinator for four years. A scarecrow propped up on the sideline would be an upgrade from Nagy. Still, Eberflus is taking over a rebuilding job after the Bears finished 6-11 in Nagy’s final season. Chicago ranked 27th in scoring offense (18.3 ppg) and 22nd in scoring defense (23.9 ppg). Eberflus eventually will build a better defense, but the Robert Quinn-led front lost some juice with the departures of Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack. If second-year quarterback Justin Fields turns into a dynamic playmaker, he’ll have to do so behind a below-average line and with a thin receiving corps. The Bears have had to deal with training camp drama with two key players — offensive tackle Teven Jenkins and linebacker Roquan Smith — and most of the news has bee n negative.