The New York Mets (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 6-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 7-13 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 8-12 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -17.01% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -44.73% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 7.64% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -14% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 7-13 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -34.31% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -31.08% ROI
- 5-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -42.01% ROI
- 13-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 33.56% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters had a groundball rate of just 16% (10/61) against Max Scherzer when he was behind in the count last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 33% (409 SO in 1,258 PAs) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has struck out 35% (225/648) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (344/1,010) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara had second base stolen on him 24 times last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (679/939) in two strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.