The Atlanta Braves (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+195) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 13-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 16-9 ATS.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -185 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 12-11 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 3.13% ROI).
- 13-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 10.34% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 4.77% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -12.33% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 16-9 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 14.63% ROI).
- 12-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 17.93% ROI
- 6-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.9 Units / -54.28% ROI
- 19-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.4 Units / 44.77% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (180 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Max Fried walked 32 of 733 batters (4%) last season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.
Max Fried allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (25 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried allowed an OBP of just .168 (369 PA’s) with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin allowed an OPS of .943 (243 PA’s) on non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .638 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order batted .335 (145-for-433) against Patrick Corbin last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OBP of .337 (341 PA’s) with two-strikes last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 0 Percentile.