Let's look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC Austin on Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the event.
UFC Austin, also dubbed UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen, takes place at AT&T Center, and the full event airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. ET).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that's what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.