ATLANTA – How many times have we seen it over the years: A player leads a PGA TOUR event by multiple strokes through 54 holes, leaving us collectively expecting a Sunday coronation, only to see the leader fail to close it out in the final round?
That's not a rhetorical question.
According to data analyst Justin Ray of the Twenty First Group, players leading by two strokes entering the last day own a mere 25.9 percent conversion rate in the past three seasons. Those with a three-stroke advantage close out just over half of the time at 57.1 percent, while a four-shot lead wins 60 percent of the time, and a five-shot lead only wins on two-thirds of those occasions.
All of this is relevant information entering this week's TOUR Championship, where the initial staggered scoring format shows Scottie Scheffler opening with a two-stroke advantage at 10-under, followed by Patrick Cantlay at 8-under and – since Will Zalatoris' third-place spot at 7-under was vacated due to his injury withdrawal – Xander Schauffele at 6-under, then Sam Burns at 5-under.