The Toronto Blue Jays (-115) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 7-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-6 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.67 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 23.38% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 27.04% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 4.04% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -13.36% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -21.1% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 4.65% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 50.89% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -61.29% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi walked 49 of 355 right-handed batters (14%) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an OPS of 1.432 (201 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.056 — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi walked 58 of 454 batters (13%) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 53% (338/641) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (83/252) against Bailey Falter last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Bailey Falter had an average spin rate of 1915.4 RPM on fastballs last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 2228.5 — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter located 46% of his pitches inside (477/1,033) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.