The Miami Marlins (-130) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.

The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Marlins are 1-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 5-4 ATS.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
• Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
• Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Erik Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Charles Leblanc has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-9 against the Run Line (-10.3 Units / -78.63% ROI).

• 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -71.61% ROI
• 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -22.22% ROI
• 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 13.33% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 2.59% ROI).

• 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -6.67% ROI
• 2-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -57.79% ROI
• 7-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 48.73% ROI

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo’s pitches (285/534) with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo had a strike rate of just 59% (316/534) in two strike counts last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo had a strikeout rate of 27% (22/82) in PAs ending on inside fastballs last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .152 (30-for-197) against Jesus Luzardo on the road last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Division opponents batted .350 against Patrick Corbin (104-for-297) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of 1.047 (356 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .753 — first Percentile.

Opponents batted .324 (73-for-225) against Patrick Corbin’s non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.

  
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