The Detroit Tigers (+140) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-165) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Bradenton.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Tigers vs Pirates Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Tigers are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-4 ATS.
Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eric Haase has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.50 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 159 games (+18.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 59 of their last 108 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 away games (+11.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 37 away games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 2-6 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -41.14% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -5.39% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.8 Units / 43.68% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -52.81% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-4 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -6.05% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -40.11% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 39.39% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -45.23% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen walked 15 of 91 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
The last hit on a Michael Lorenzen changeup was September 16th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 25 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Bryan Baker has the longest active streak at 28.
Michael Lorenzen has pitched 11.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — J.P. Feyereisen has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Michael Lorenzen walked 14 of 107 batters (13%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 52% of the time (481/930) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (499/1,137) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
19 of Rich Hill’s 66 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.