There seems to be a consistent level of performance that has developed for certain programs with certain coaches among the power conference teams in college basketball. I discovered this about five years ago and have been riding this gravy train ever since. The programs that have performed best have had consistent coaching staffs that have prepared their teams strategically to be ready to make late-season and post-season tournament runs. If this logic sounds familiar to you, I often write about a similar situation in the NFL, where the best teams tend to rise in December.
I’ve always believed that there is an enhanced home-court advantage at this time of year. That will also prove vital over the next two weeks as we wrap up league play in the major conferences. With so many regular season league titles still yet to be determined and the seeding for all the postseason tournaments not sorted out yet, there is a ton left to play for. And as usual, with so much on the line, the strategy for handicapping the games should change a bit. It is often the case that odds makers will sway their lines slightly to reflect the “must-win” mentality of teams in key spots. Alternatively, they may shade teams that are playing out the string, already looking forward to the off-season.
The point spread is the great equalizer for bookmakers, and with so much known about each of the teams by now, those bettors looking to cash tickets in the final two weeks should be aware of some foundational trends and systems that have produced strong results in recent years. Part of that should include late-season performance, especially in cases where coaching situations have remained consistent for teams.
In this piece, I will be breaking down the results of the finals two weeks of the regular season for the power conferences, looking for spots in which we may be able to profit in 2023. As I indicated earlier, in most of the last five years I have published this analysis, the same names have arisen as the teams to back at this time of year—teams like Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, Michigan State, Villanova, etc. As you consider backing these teams over the next couple of weeks, I would take special note of Villanova, who is under new coaching leadership this season, and has taken a huge step back since Jay Wright left. On the other side of the coin, programs like Georgetown, DePaul, and even Alabama have floundered in the late season. Does Nate Oats’ Tide team have what it takes to turn that around this year? It would appear so.
In looking back at how this piece has prepared bettors for success over the last two years, in 2021, I revealed the four teams across the country that had gone 70% or better in the final two weeks of the previous five regular seasons. Those teams were Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Oregon, and Providence. How did those teams fare after I revealed the findings? In a word, phenomenal. They combined to go 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS, good once again for 73.6%! Last year, the four teams at 70% or better were Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Providence. All those teams did in the final two regular-season weeks of the 2022 season was go 11-5 ATS, good for 68.8%. At the same time, on the other end, the “bottom teams” continued to flounder. Hopefully, the same continues in 2023, and without knowing at this point, I would imagine the list of teams remains consistent on both ends.
You’ll see that there are some very definitive angles you’ll be inclined to put to use over the next couple of weeks, primarily as they pertain to home-court advantage, pace of play, and recent results between teams in a matchup. Certain teams have thrived and others that have tanked at this time of the year.
For the record, the results have shown cover games dating back to 2018, or the last five seasons. The time period of the final two weeks of this year’s regular season would include games between Monday, February 20th, and Sunday, March 5th, so readers will again have 14 full days to take advantage of the findings. You’ll see that I’ve also included a handy chart detailing the records for all the power conference teams in a variety of last two weeks’ scenarios at the conclusion of the piece.
Before going any further, however, you must consider that in the five years of this study, home-court advantage in the final two regular-season weeks has meant a great deal more than at any other point in the season. In fact, home teams in the power conferences are 475-249 SU and 410-296 ATS for 58.1% in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018. Nothing else considered, this is a huge profit-making strategy.
If you’re looking to up that ATS percentage a little more, consider the aspect of revenge. Power conference teams looking to avenge an earlier-season loss and playing as home favorites of six points or more in the last two weeks of the regular season have gone 57-5 SU and 41-19 ATS (68.3%). It’s possible we could see this situation in Saturday’s big Indiana-Purdue game as the Boilermakers look to avenge their loss at Indiana on 2/4.
Top Teams
There have been nine power conference teams that have won 70% or more of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years. They have combined to go 91-67 against the spread (57.6%) as well.
CONNECTICUT: 7-1 SU and 4-3 ATS
VIRGINIA: 15-3 SU and 10-8 ATS
TENNESSEE: 15-4 SU and 10-8 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA: 14-4 SU and 10-7 ATS
OREGON: 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS
KANSAS: 14-5 SU and 8-10 ATS
MICHIGAN ST: 16-6 SU and 13-9 ATS
PURDUE: 12-5 SU and 9-8 ATS
ARKANSAS: 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS
By no coincidence, six of these programs (Arkansas, UConn and UNC excluded) has had the same coach for the duration of the study. In my opinion, this makes backing these teams late in the season a fundamentally sound strategy.
There have been four different teams that have gone 70% or better ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:
GEORGIA TECH: 13-7 SU and 18-2 ATS
OKLAHOMA ST: 14-7 SU and 17-4 ATS
PROVIDENCE: 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS
OREGON: 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS
Ironically, this is the same four teams that qualified for this list a year ago at this point, and they combined to go 11-5 ATS in the final two weeks. At that point, I actually questioned how well a bottom-feeding ACC team like Georgia Tech would fare. In form, the Yellow Jackets went 4-1 ATS down the stretch. They are struggling again this year. Can Coach Josh Pastner get them to respond again?
Bottom Teams
There have been eight power conference teams that have won 30% or less of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years, and their combined ATS record is an ugly 57-87 (39.6%). Those teams are:
PITTSBURGH: 2-14 SU and 6-10 ATS
IOWA ST: 4-17 SU and 6-13 ATS
GEORGIA: 4-15 SU and 8-11 ATS
MINNESOTA: 4-15 SU and 6-12 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 5-15 SU and 9-11 ATS
VANDERBILT: 5-15 SU and 7-12 ATS
BOSTON COLLEGE: 5-14 SU and 7-9 ATS
LOUISVILLE: 5-12 SU and 8-9 ATS
Interestingly here, for 2023, Pittsburgh and Iowa State find themselves in the thick of conference title races. Can the Panthers and Cyclones shake off past late-season struggles and remain in the hunt?
There have been four teams that have gone 33% or worse ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:
ALABAMA: 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS
IOWA ST: 4-17 SU and 6-13 ATS
MINNESOTA: 4-15 SU and 6-12 ATS
XAVIER: 9-9 SU and 6-12 ATS
This is an eye-opening list in that three of the teams (Minnesota excluded) are headed to the NCAA tournament in March and will be continuing the fight for better seeding in their remaining regular season games. Will things turn around for them in 2023? Recent history doesn’t suggest it. In fact, the three teams I pointed out in this section a year ago went 4-6 ATS the rest of the way, again proving that fading the worst late-season teams down the stretch is a fruitful strategy.
Best Home Teams
There have been nine teams that have gone 90% or better outright at home in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years, and five teams that have gone undefeated at home in that span. These teams have combined to go a remarkable 66-16 against the spread (80.5%) as hosts! They are:
KANSAS: 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS
FLORIDA ST: 9-0 SU and 5-2 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 4-0 SU and 2-1 ATS
MICHIGAN ST: 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS
LSU: 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS
ARKANSAS: 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS
OREGON: 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS
CREIGHTON: 9-1 SU and ATS
GEORGIA TECH: 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS
Some of the records on the list above are amazing, particularly against the spread. If you’re plotting ahead, note that Michigan State has home games left versus Indiana (2/21) and Ohio State (3/4), while Oregon hosts California and Stanford on 3/2 and 3/4. For Georgia Tech, the only home opportunity left comes against Louisville on Saturday 2/25. Of note there, Louisville has been one of the worst teams overall in late-season play in recent years.
Worst Home Teams
Most of the teams on the “Bottom” list above have enjoyed little to no home court advantage late in the season. Here are the nine power conference teams that have won 33% or fewer of their home games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years. Their combined ATS record is a miserable 31-51 (37.8%).
VANDERBILT: 2-8 SU and 3-6 ATS
PITTSBURGH: 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS
GEORGIA: 3-8 SU and 5-6 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 3-8 SU and 6-5 ATS
IOWA ST: 3-7 SU and 2-7 ATS
OREGON ST: 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS
ALABAMA: 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS
MINNESOTA: 3-6 SU and 4-4 ATS
FLORIDA: 3-6 SU and ATS
When you consider the 2023 prospects for the teams on the “worst home” list, there are some high-quality programs. Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Alabama, and Florida have obvious reason for concern down the stretch.
Best Road Teams
Ability to win on the road late in the season is typically a strong trait for the best teams across all sports. Same goes for college basketball. Here are the seven power conference teams to win at least 60% of their road games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018:
VIRGINIA: 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS
TENNESSEE: 7-3 SU and 4-5 ATS
WISCONSIN: 6-3 SU and ATS
N CAROLINA: 6-3 SU and 4-4 ATS
FLORIDA: 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS
OREGON: 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS
This list is interesting in that three of the teams on it, notably Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Oregon, all have a lot of work to do in the season’s remaining games to try to qualify for an NCAA tournament berth.
Worst Road Teams
There have been 13 teams that have won less than 15% of their road games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years. That is an ugly number. The combined ATS record of these teams is arguably worse, 29-75 (27.9%)! Until something changes, there is no reason not to continue fading these teams on the road in 2023.
PITTSBURGH: 0-8 SU and 3-5 ATS
UTAH: 0-3 SU and ATS
ST JOHNS: 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS
IOWA ST: 1-10 SU and 4-6 ATS
MINNESOTA: 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS
DEPAUL: 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS
BOSTON COLLEGE: 1-8 SU and 2-4 ATS
KANSAS ST: 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS
GEORGIA: 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS
WAKE FOREST: 1-7 SU and ATS
STANFORD: 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS
BUTLER: 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS
CALIFORNIA: 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS
This list has notable teams like Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and Kansas State on it for 2023, the three of which have combined to go 2-28 outright on the road in the final two weeks of the last five seasons. I’ve shared evidence already of how much home-court advantage means in late-season power conference games. It means even more when facing the teams on this fade list.
Best Revenge Teams
An angle that produces some definitive results is that of revenge, or when a team lost the initial game versus a conference opponent earlier in the season, and how they responded. The following is a list of the teams that performed best in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018 when playing with revenge motivation:
OREGON: 7-0 SU and ATS
VILLANOVA: 4-0 SU and ATS
N CAROLINA: 3-0 SU and ATS
FLORIDA ST: 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS
ARKANSAS: 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS
TENNESSEE: 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS
AUBURN: 4-1 SU and 2-2 ATS
MICHIGAN ST: 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
KANSAS: 7-2 SU and 6-2 ATS
Seeing as how Oregon and Kansas have fared very well in revenge, I figured it would be prudent to share each team’s payback opportunities the rest of the way. For the Ducks, they’ll face Stanford at home on March 4th. The Jayhawks’ only chance for revenge is Monday night (2/20) at TCU.
Worst Revenge Teams
Alternatively, revenge hasn’t proven to be a good motivating factor for these teams:
LOUISVILLE: 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS
ARIZONA: 0-5 SU and ATS
ALABAMA: 0-2 SU and ATS
STANFORD: 1-6 SU and 5-2 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 2-11 SU and 6-7 ATS
MARYLAND: 1-5 SU and ATS
USC: 1-5 SU and ATS
IOWA ST: 2-9 SU and 3-6 ATS