Three ranked vs. ranked matchups from the SEC, Big East, and Big 12 highlight a loaded mid-week college basketball slate. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Wednesday based on the top NCAAB odds.
The Alabama Crimson Tide were named the No. 1 team in the AP poll this week for the first time since 2002-03. They get their first chance to defend that No. 1 ranking in the high-profile contest of the day against a Tennessee Volunteers team that has lost back-to-back games at the buzzer.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Wednesday (odds via BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Wednesday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Alabama vs. Tennessee (-3)
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-3)
- Indiana (-1) vs. Northwestern
- Xavier vs. Marquette (-5.5)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Wednesday
- Spread: Marquette -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Xavier ????
- Moneyline: Mississippi State (-145 via Caesars) vs. Kentucky ???
- Total: Indiana-Northwestern Over 134.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Long Beach State (+105 via PointsBet) vs. UC Riverside ???
College basketball top picks
A Big East regular season title feels like it is on the line for Marquette in this game, as it would fall a half-game behind Xavier and not own the head-to-head tiebreaker, having lost to the Musketeers at the Cintas Center earlier this season.
This is a solid four-star play, as Xavier point guard Souley Boum will likely still be hampered by an ankle injury he suffered in last Friday's loss at Butler. Boum is an integral part of what Xavier does offensively, as he ranks in the top 101 of all players nationally in offensive player rating and percentage of minutes played.
Six Musketeers scored in double figures in the first meeting between these teams. However, with leading scorer Boum limited and second-leading scorer forward Zach Freemantle (15.2 points, 8.1 rebounds) still out with a foot injury, Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart will be able to dial up a more effective defensive game plan.
Mississippi State is playing its best basketball of the season, entering this matchup on a five-game winning streak. The Bulldogs have a strong case for an at-large NCAA tournament berth, owning a neutral-site win over Marquette, a road win at Arkansas, and a home victory against TCU. They have three Quad 1 wins in total and face a Kentucky team that has struggled against elite competition. The Wildcats own a 1-7 Quad 1 record and are 15-2 against everyone else.
This is a three-star play, as Mississippi State ranks fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and forces an SEC-best 23.4% turnover rate in league play.
When these teams met on Jan. 8 at Assembly Hall, they combined for 167 points. The 84 points were Northwestern's highest-scoring output in a Big Ten game this season, as the Hoosiers had no answers for the Wildcats' senior backcourt duo of Boo Buie and Chase Audige. The two combined for 45 points, going 13-of-25 from 2-point range and 13-of-16 from the free-throw line.
Look for Wildcats head coach Chris Collins to continue to space the floor for Buie and Audige and isolate them in mismatches to take advantage of their elite playmaking abilities. In addition, Northwestern doubles the post at the highest rate in the country with Chris Lowery running their defensive play-calling, but that did not stop Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis from scoring 18 points and attempting 19 shots from the floor in the first meeting.
We expect this number to rise throughout the day, and would play the Over up to 136.
Long Beach State is one of the most unique teams in the country to prepare for. It plays at Division I's fastest tempo (per KenPom), spends the least amount of time on offense per possession (15 seconds), and shoots 3-pointers at the lowest rate in the country (23%). In fact, the Beach gets a D-1 most 64.2% of its points from inside the arc.
UC Riverside is much better at defending the perimeter, as teams are getting 58.5% of their points against the Highlanders from 2-point range. In addition, UC Riverside spends 17.1 seconds on average per defensive possession (the fewest in the Big West), which plays right into the hands of what the Beach wants to do offensively.
The Highlanders are 3-5 against the spread as home favorites, and we expect Long Beach State to get revenge for a one-point home loss earlier this season.
College basketball best bets made 2/15/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.
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