Two titles are on the line Saturday at UFC 273, but both betting favorites are juiced to the extreme. We’ll have to look way down in the prelims to find better value.
Vinc Pichel (-145) vs. Mark Madsen (+ 125)
Lightweights
Whenever an Olympic-caliber wrestler enters the Octagon, it’s good to take notice. Madsen won a silver medal for Denmark in 2016 and has since focused mainly on MMA. While he has far less MMA experience than Pichel, Madsen’s wrestle-first mentality could pair nicely with Pichel’s underwhelming takedown success rate of 26%.
Pichel does appear to be a well-rounded fighter, posting a 7-2 record in a competitive lightweight division. But styles make fights, and his two losses came against fighters who landed a lot of takedowns. Madsen is a very live dog.Play: Madsen to win. Over/Under recommendation to come later in the week on First Strike.