This week’s UFC 284 card in Perth, Australia, borrows a similar theme from Brazil’s UFC 283 from last month in that 10 of the 13 bouts feature an Australian athlete taking on a “ship-in” from elsewhere in the world.
A larger 30-foot octagon, travel for those outside of Australia as well the time adjustments all come into play for foreign events. Not to mention that the UFC does some subtle manicuring to put local fighters in potentially favorable positions.
Last week’s Insight the Octagon digital release failed, leaving us 2-1 +1.15 units for the year. While Sergey Spivak did exactly as predicted, Da Woon Jung looked statuesque, deliberate and unathletic in his attempt to gain legitimacy in the middleweight division.
Islam Makhachev (-400) vs. Alex Volkanovski (+330)
Lightweight (155 pounds) Championship | Main Event
Finocchiaro: This is more than just the middleweight title as Volkanovski the current featherweight tile holder and acknowledged “pound for pound” champion in the UFC moves up a weight class to challenge the “New Khabib” in Russian vise grip Makhachev. Makhachev holds the lightweight title and is acknowledged as No. 2-ranked in those fallacious “pound for pound” rankings. The “pound for pound” discussion is folly because it’s so difficult to compare athletes of varying sizes when it comes to mixed martial arts.
Makhachev, 31, is three years younger and four inches taller than Volkanovski, but he has no reach advantage. I’ll acknowledge he has faced, heavier athletes. His striking is refined and his grappling/sambo/wrestling is world-class dominant.
Lastly, the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency, which tests UFC athletes, will readily admit that in the cat-and-mouse game that is ensuring fighter safety by testing all athletes, the Russian contingent remains one step ahead of the process at almost every juncture. Just saying.
Volkanovski is a uniquely constructed athlete who in his youth played championship team rugby at 205 pounds! Volkanovski used fortitude, focus and grit to get to the 145-pound limit let alone dominate there. To believe the move up to 155 pounds will be a challenge seems unwarranted.
What may be questioned is how his cardio fare will carry the extra weight if and when this bout enters the championship rounds. There, we’ll all discover how vulnerable Makhachev is … or isn’t.
Volkanovski’s footwork and striking may be superior to Makhachev’s and while he’s not the grappling threat that Makhachev is, his wrestling base coupled with his short, stout frame will pose a tremendous challenge to the incoming pressure grappler.
Once the bell rings, I believe Makhachev’s surely going to get Volkanovski to the canvas, but when he gets up, what will the reaction be from the larger Makhachev? Further, Makhachev has been talking about his hands and how he believes he can ice Volkanovski on the feet.
Straying too much from his wresting/grappling forte would be unwise for Makhachev.
This fight sets up well for Volkanovski to surprise Makhachev, who in addition to competing without his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov in the corner Saturday has been vocal about not gaining the support of the UFC for this “pound for pound” production.
Volkanovski’s compact frame, his incredible strength, his Greco-Roman wrestling base coupled with his black belt in BJJ equip him with the appropriate tools to legitimately challenge for this title.
Makhachev opened -330 for this bout and has been bet to the current -400. I handicap Makhachev more in the -240 to -260 range and will advise those interested in Volkanovski to use patience for the line may continue to rise as we near the bout.
Total in this fight: 3.5 rounds Under -130