Patrick Mahomes to Win Super Bowl MVP ( 130)
Adam Burke: Getting the most bang for your buck is really important given how hard it is to beat the vig and beat the sports betting markets. There is an opportunity to do that if you think the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. I don’t know if they will, but there is some line value on taking Patrick Mahomes to win MVP as opposed to taking the Chiefs to win or 1.5.
Mahomes is 130 to win the Super Bowl MVP award. The Chiefs are 105 on the moneyline at most places. There are very few possible outcomes in which the Chiefs are victorious and Mahomes fails to win MVP. There is already a built-in narrative with his bad ankle and the impressive things he has done while compromised. There is another built-in news story that would make him the first player to win the regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP in nearly 25 years.
Travis Kelce might have a big game, but Mahomes will be the one throwing him passes. A defensive player may have a big game, but defensive players who have won in recent history have usually returned an interception for a touchdown or had a couple of picks. Jalen Hurts has thrown six picks all season. Von Miller is the only pass rusher since the 1980s to win the award on the merit of sacks (Malcolm Smith had a pick-six and a fumble recovery in Super Bowl XLVIII).
If you think the Chiefs will win, Mahomes 130 to win MVP is a no-brainer. If you think the game is a toss-up, Mahomes 130 to win MVP is way better than Chiefs 105 on the moneyline. To me, it’s worth the risk and the low-percentage outcome that the Chiefs win and somebody other than Mahomes is crowned the hero of the game.