The Boston Red Sox (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 58-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 59-57 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+13.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 41% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Pirates vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 98 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 24% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 1.97% ROI).

• 58-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -5.12% ROI
• 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -7.61% ROI
• 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -4.07% ROI).

• 45-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -4.4% ROI
• 51-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -8.85% ROI
• 57-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.54% ROI

Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josh Winckowski has struck out just 7% (2/29) of left-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has thrown his slider 46% of the time (82/180) this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Josh Winckowski was 112.4 MPH — 10th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.7

Josh Winckowski has thrown breaking pitches 47% of the time (49/105) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 91st Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (300/899) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (584/1,099) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (139/447) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (30/81) against JT Brubaker when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

  
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