The Philadelphia Phillies (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 65-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 54-61 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 56.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 49 away games (+14.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 45 away games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+11.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 78% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+8.10 Units / 67% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 66 games (+19.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 64 of their last 111 games (+14.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 65 games (+12.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 89 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 61-55 against the Run Line (+5.15 Units / 3.66% ROI).
- 65-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 4.09% ROI
- 56-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.54% ROI
- 54-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.25 Units / -5.69% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 54-61 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -9.01% ROI).
- 45-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -10.48% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.55% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -7.13% ROI
Ranger Suarez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (17/133) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (114/597) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .236 (66 Total Bases / 280 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .421 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (122/207) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Perce ntile.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) versus the top of the order this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .319 — second Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 8 of 46 batters (17%) this month (2 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this month (2 games) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .327 — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 45% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (29/65) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.