1st TD scorer picks for the NFC, AFC Championship Games
The NFL playoffs can tend to be home of the unexpected. But not for my first-touchdown system! This season, I have been tracking who’s scored first for every team and using their success rates to determine which team to target in a matchup. I wondered if that system would continue to work in the playoffs and I was not disappointed.
In the Wild Card Round, five of six games saw the better first-touchdown team score first, with the Bengals scoring first against the Ravens as the lone outlier, which wasn’t a huge upset percentage-wise. And, this past weekend in the Divisional Round, three games featured first-TD mismatches and all three saw the better team score first. The Cowboys and 49ers had identical records, so I couldn’t find an edge in that one unfortunately. But, I would say the system correctly predicting which team would score first in eight of nine eligible playoff games so far is nothing to scoff at. It’s especially helpful if your book offers the “which team will score first” market.
It’s really a shame we only have two games this week, because I think we’d all like to feel like Cameron Craig, who last week cashed a $5 four-leg first-touchdown parlay for $72,795 featuring Travis Kelce (+600), Dallas Goedert (+1200), Ja’Marr Chase (+900) and Dalton Schultz (+1500). Well done, sir!