The AFC continues to show why it's the best conference in the NFL at the moment. What's better than an AFC Championship rematch between Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs versus Joe Burrow and the defending conference champs?
It's time to respect the Cincinnati Bengals. After their convincing Divisional Round victory over the Buffalo Bills, there's no more doubt about whether this team is legit. They are, and they have just as good of a chance of winning Super Bowl 57 as any of the four teams remaining.
The betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook have flipped back and forth for this rematch. Kansas City originally opened up as a slim favorite, only to see the Bengals favored, and now the pendulum has swung back in the Chiefs' favor. As of Thursday afternoon, Kansas City is considered a slim 1-point favorite.
Considering this matchup is virtually a toss-up, let's take a deeper look at some of the industry's bigges t projection models and NFL experts to take the temperature on how this game will'really'shake out.
Bengals vs Chiefs Projections
ESPN FPI:'Chiefs (65.5%)
numberFire:'Chiefs (62.0%)
FiveThirtyEight:'Chiefs (58%)
Moneyline Projection:'Chiefs (53.7%)
Projected Winner:'Chiefs (4)
All of the major projection markets are siding with the Chi efs, perhaps more convincingly than the 1-point spread would suggest. ESPN is giving Kansas City a nearly 2-in-3 chance to win, while numberFire and FiveThirtyEight are similarly optimistic at around 60%.
If you're more interested in who the experts are picking, however, we'll take a look at that as well.
Bengals vs Chiefs Expert Picks
- Stephania Bell:'N/A
- Matt Bowen:'N/A
- Mike Clay:'Chiefs
- Jeremy Fowler:'N/A
- Dan Graziano:'Bengals
- Jason Reid:'N/A
- Seth Wickersham:'Chiefs
ESPN Total:'Chiefs (2), Bengals (1)
- Albert Breer:'Bengals
- Mitch Goldich:'Chiefs
- Gary Gramling:'Bengals
- Conor Orr:'Bengals
- John Pluym: Bengals
Sports Illustrated Total:'Bengals (4), Chi efs (1)
- Pete Prisco:'Bengals
- Jason La Canfora:'Bengals
- Will Brinson:'N/A
- Jared Dubin:'Bengals
- Ryan Wilson:'Bengals
- John Breech:'Bengals
- Dave Richard:'Bengals
- Jamey Eisenberg:'Bengals
CBS Total:'Bengals (7)
The experts paint a completely different pi cture. Maybe it's lingering doubts around Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury, but the experts side heavily with the Bengals. That's 12 of the experts counting on Cincinnati versus just three for Kansas City.
We do tend to see experts have a bias toward picking underdogs, especially in the postseason, but there's a clear overall trend across our sources pointing to the Bengals as underrated by the betting lines this week. It's that factor that's hard to quantify. Sure, Cincinnati is no longer a "Cinderella" team, but they've got momentum on their side after winning 10 in a row and can always count on a bit of Burrow playoff magic.