The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) on Jan. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm EST in Kansas City for the AFC Conference Championship play off game.
The Bengals are betting favorites in this game, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Bengals vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction for AFC Conference Championship
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win the AFC Conference Championship game with 53.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread in the AFC Conference Championship with 59.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bengals and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Tyler Boyd has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+6.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joe Burrow has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Joe Burrow has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 51% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Bengals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 23.5 -110 | 23.5 -120 |
| Tyler Boyd | 32.5 -115 | 32.5 -115 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| Tee Higgins | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 28.5 -115 | 28.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Bengals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| Joe Burrow | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
| Isaih Pacheco | 47.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
| Samaje Perine | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -115 |
Bengals Best Bets for AFC Conference Championship:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+6.10 Units / 84% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets for AFC Conference Championship:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 13-5 (+7.35 Units / 37.03% ROI).
- Bengals are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 13.66% ROI
- Bengals are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4.05 Units / -20.4% ROI
- Bengals are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 7-11 (-5.2 Units / -26.13% ROI).
- Chiefs are 15-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 13.65% ROI
- Chiefs are 8-10 when betting the Over for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Chiefs are 10-8 when betting the Under for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI
Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bengals are undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Bengals are undefeated (11-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Bengals are undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .701.
The Bengals were undefeated (7-0) when rushing less than 25 times in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .344.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs are 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Bengals have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .550.