Over the last two weeks, I have compiled the trends from both the Wild Card Round and Divisional Rounds of recent NFL playoffs. In the Wild Card Round, home teams enjoyed a second straight advantageous season, winning four of six games after going 5-1 a year ago. In the Divisional Round, I explained how typically the hosts won three of the four games. That's exactly what happened last weekend, as they went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, with the team that dominated my strength ratings all season, Buffalo, being the only one that failed to advance. It's now time to detail all of the key historical handicapping information for the Conference Championship Round.
This past weekend's Divisional Round didn't live up to the drama or competitive level of a year ago, but after the four games had concluded, there was little reason for anyone to believe that the best four teams didn't advance. Kansas City won somewhat comfortably against Jacksonville, considering it had an injured QB Patrick Mahomes for much of the game. The Eagles overwhelmed the Giants. The Bengals left little doubt with their road trampling of Buffalo. And San Francisco flexed its muscles in limiting Dallas for 60 minutes. If you recall, last year in the Divisional Round, all four games were decided on the final play-three in regulation, one in overtime. Perhaps with the limited dramatic conflict producing four title-worthy teams, we can only hope that we are now set up for a thrilling Sunday of conference title game action, with trips to Super Bowl LVII on the line.
When analyzing the recent conference title tilts, the most noticeable thing is that after a five-year run of overall dominance by home teams (10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS) from 2014-18, road teams have tipped the scales since, going 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS, including an ATS sweep in 2022.' It was the first point spread sweep of the visitors since doing so back-to-back in 2013 and 2014. Another anomaly that occurred in the games of last January was both games going UNDER the total. It was the first time that happened since 2014. Of course, with neither #1 seed having played in those games, perhaps we should have been prepared for unusual things to occur. Note that for the eighth time in the last 11 seasons, both #1 seeds will be hosting the weekend's games again.
Will the return of #1 seeds mean we are looking again at two relatively easy home wins as had become somewhat custom? Considering Philadelphia is laying just 2.5 points, and Kansas City is listed at -1, this year's games figure to mark the first time since 2007 that neither home team was favored by more than 3 points. What happened that year you might be wondering? Hosts Chicago and Indianapolis both won and covered the point spreads in their respective games.
Using similar methodologies to that of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems that have developed in recent Conference Championship game action. I will be applying this year's matchups (San Francisco-Philadelphia and Cincinnati-Kansas City) to the key info when applicable.
'General Conference Championship Playoff ATS Trends
– The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but six of the last 42 (85.7%) Conference Championship playoff games. The most recent team to not do that was the Rams last year, as they edged San Francisco 20-17 as 3.5-point favorites. If you recall, this is a bit below the current Wild Card rate (88.5%) by outright winners but better than the Divisional Round rate (76.7%).
– Hosts are on a 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS (61.1%) run in Conference Championship play, although both the Chiefs and Rams failed to cover the point spreads in their games a year ago.
– There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the Conference Championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Most recently, Minnesota lost in 2018 to Philadelphia, 38-7 as a 3-point favorite. With the early line movement and the injury impact surrounding Chiefs' QB Mahomes, it is possible that Cincinnati ends up a road favorite at kickoff.
– Beware of large home favorites in the Conference Championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 12-6 SU but just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) since '99.
– Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points are 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) in their last 20 tries. Those games have also gone OVER the total at a 13-6-1 (68.4%) rate in that span. This line range trend figures to be among the most applicable to this week's games.
– The last 18 times that a home team has won and covered the point spread in the conference title games, that game has also gone OVER the total at a 14-4 rate. The last 12 times that a road team covered the point spread in conference title action, UNDER the total is 8-4, including 2-0 in 2022.
– Teams that won by 7 points or less in the Divisional Round are just 3-16 SU and 8-11 ATS (42.1%) in their last 19 road conference title game appearances but did go 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS last year. This trend applies to San Francisco for a second straight year this Sunday.
– In intra-divisional Conference Championship games, the favorites are on a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS (60%) surge. This will apply to the NFC contest.
– Home teams are 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) in the last 16 AFC clashes, and 13-5 SU and 9-9 ATS (50%) in their last 18 NFC tilts.
– Of the teams in the AFC and NFC Championship contests this year, San Francisco is making its sixth conference title game appearance in the last 11 years and owns a 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS record in the prior five while Philadelphia is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in this round since '02. Cincinnati is making its second straight appearance and fourth overall, boasting a 3-0 SU and ATS in the prior three. Kansas City is in for a fifth straight year as host and looking for a third AFC crown, having split the games 2-2 SU and ATS.
– Since the 2004 season, playoff experience has meant a great deal to championship hosts. In fact, home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are on a 21-7 SU and 16-12 ATS (57.1%) run, including 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS (60%) versus teams that weren't in the playoffs the prior season. All four teams in the 2023 games were in the playoffs last year as well.
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Conference Championship Trends by Seed Number
– #1 seeds have been the host teams in 43 of the last 60 Conference Championship games and have gone 29-14 SU and 22-21 ATS in those games. Both #1 seeds in 2023 advance out of the Divisional Round and will host games this week.
– Only three teams that were not #1 or #2 seeds have hosted Conference Championship games in the last 22 years, and all three won outright while going 2-1 ATS. Indianapolis did so in the AFC in 2007, Arizona followed that up two years later for the NFC, and the Rams won without covering in 2022.
– #2 seeds hosting Conference Championship games are just 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS (40%) since '97, with Kansas City being the most recent victim, losing outright to the Bengals in 2022.
– Wild Card teams, or those seeded #5-#7, have gone just 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS (42.9%) dating back to '96 in the conference title games, including just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS the last 12 seasons.
– Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the Conference Championship games have trended OVER the total at a 13-4-1 (76.5%) rate since '02. This week's NFC matchup will test this trend.
Conference Championship Trends Regarding Totals
– Overall, since '93, OVER the total is 35-24-1 (59.3%) in the Conference Championship playoff games, including 8-4 OVER in the last 12. However, there has been a stark difference when you consider conference breakdown lately, as the last 11 AFC games are 7-4 UNDER (63.6%) while NFC contests are on a 14-6-1 OVER (70%) surge.
– Breaking down the totals for this weekend's games based upon ranges, seven of the last 10 conference title tilts since '03 with totals more than 42 but less than 48 have gone OVER. Both of this week's games figure to come in this range. Totals less than 41.5 are rare nowadays, but we did have one in 2018, and since '00, OVER the total is 10-4-1 in these games. The last 11 games with totals in the 50s have seen five OVERS and six UNDERS.
– Similarly, to the divisional round trends regarding correlated parlays, home conference title point spread wins have typically meant OVERS (14-4 in the last 18), while road point spread wins trend UNDER (8-4 in the last 12)
Following the Line/Total Moves
In each of the last two weeks' articles, I have pointed out that bettors have been in fact “sharp” when it comes to postseason games. For the Conference Championship round, that pattern continues. Following the line moves throughout the week heading up to the big games would have netted you a record of 17-7 ATS (70.8%) since '05. However, last year, bettors lost the AFC game, backing the Chiefs, while the NFC game stayed stable at -3.5 up through kickoff. Be sure to follow the moves throughout the rest of the week up until kickoff, as line moves as of Monday were only half-point sways and favored Philadelphia and Cincinnati.